First Snow Essay Example

First Snow Essay English Essay First Snow 10-11-2009 First Snow By Davy Rothbart, 2000 The scariest things in the world are the ones we do not understand. Our imagination holds immense power over us, which can turn a serene and peaceful milieu into a frightening and terrifying situation. This is the reason why I, and many other children, was afraid of darkness during childhood. Not being able to see in the dark, allows the mind to wander, and suddenly all the ghost stories or horror movies, that seemed so vague and inconsequential in the bright daylight, becomes appetizers for your mind, to create horrendous and unspeakable images. However, vision is not the only requirement for understanding. Outcasts come in all shapes and sizes, and some are clearly visible. As a matter of fact, they will often stand out, because of their unique characteristics, yet they are still often met with hostility, resentment and distrust. The environment in First Snow is small, monotonous and not suited for growth. This means that does that do not fit in with the surroundings, will naturally become outcasts. Maurice is a character with many features that spawns distinction and diversity. His physical attributes include a different skin color, a feeble and frail conformation and finally he wear glasses. His mental traits includes a low self esteem, â€Å"none of y’all prob’ly give a shit about me, I know that† and his religious orientation â€Å"Take one step towards Allah, and he’ll take two steps towards you†. These qualities are what make him extraordinary, and one of the sources of the hatred he generates in the remaining inmates. The other prisoners are like a hive mind. They look like each other, because none of them possesses anything that makes them distinctive. We will write a custom essay sample on First Snow specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on First Snow specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on First Snow specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer They act the same, because their minds work the same way, â€Å"we all laughed; maybe I laughed the loudest, I don’t know†. The narrator defines himself, as one of the group, but because the group is so plain and assimilated, he doesn’t know who he really is – or if he was the one laughing the most. Emotionally they are also connected, in that they share the sorrow and grief, experienced by realizing how long they have actually been detained, †when we knew winter was on it’s a way, a certain desperation latched onto our hearts† and they share the same satisfaction they get from beating Maurice, â€Å"We danced and sang. We beat Maurice savagely, with pride, with glory†. The sudden attack on Maurice happens quickly without hesitation from any of the prisoners, almost as if the assault was planned – and I believe on some level that it actually was †It seemed as if our whole lives had been lived in preparation for this celebration†. The theory of the hive mind group of convicts applies here as well. Ever since Maurice started showing individuality, he became an enemy of the group and when he speaks of his late brother and reveals emotion, he pushes the group of prisoners of the edge. Similar to the short story The Beach, the victim does nothing to protect himself or resist his attackers – who finds the mauling of another human being, unappealingly easy, â€Å"And that was it. It really was that simple†. The assailants in both texts shows clear signs of psychopathic behavior, and marvels at the bliss that comes with murder, and how easy it actually is to end another person’s life, and at the same time, ending their misery. The text never definitely implies that Maurice is dead, but we can assume that he very likely is, and thus the thought of his deceased brother won’t haunt him anymore. Likewise, Christo is liberated from his pain and wounds, as Richard ends his life. However, the prisoners do not attack Maurice to release him from his troubles. They are jealous of him, because even though he is detained, he is the only one who is really free. He has a future, where the remaining inmates are already serving a life sentence, â€Å"I would be freed in spring, but it would not be long before I was locked up again†. The prisoners are not capable of evading their ties to their environment – similar to Hispanic immigrants in many parts of US. Often they will leave their native country, in search of an opportunity to overcome poverty and moribund human rights, but many circumstances such as being unable to obtain citizenship, difficulty with the language and the general stereotypic portrayal of immigrants weighing them down; they are often trapped in the same place, unable to progress and accomplish their sometimes adolescent goals and naive dreams. To the narrator and the prisoners in First Snow, Maurice is no longer seen as a human and therefore cannot be treated as one, and this string of thoughts allows the group to kick, punch and spit on him without feeling remorse – or perhaps it’s vice versa: Maurice is the only human. This scenario resembles an oil painting by Eric Fischl. The picture, entitled Anger, Fear, Remorse or Incontinence†, depicts a dismayed person standing before a huge statue resembling a godlike entity. The emotions in the title, represents the characteristics of the prisoners, excluding Maurice. Anger and fear drive them to attack Maurice, but afterwards they are struck with remorse, â€Å"I knew also that the only way I could have avoided this future of a lifetime of incarceration was if, immediately after the accident, we had grouped up and gone for help†. Finally there is incontinence – the inability to restraint oneself and the lack of sensible self-control. Wantonness is a prominent theme in First Snow, as the text illustrates a world filled with decadence and lack of ethical and decent choices in a society that unattractively bears a strong resemblance to ours. In a way, we all participated in the murder of Maurice, because everyone fears what they cannot understand, and everyone judges what they misinterpret. The difference between our society and the world in First Snow is only upheld by a fragile barrier between acting violently on our misunderstandings with distrust, and accepting the diversity among cultures and norms with tolerance. The narrator regrets his actions, but not because of Maurice’s death, but because he realizes he have predestined himself to an immobile existence, with no chance of escaping a life confined to imprisonment – whether it will be physically confinement or mentally captivity. Words: 1061

Free Essays on Oranges By Gary Soto

that catch the reader’s attention. This poem is just right. â€Å"Oranges† is about a young boy’s first walk with a girl. This poem shows how the simplest things in life may have the most tremendous impact on a person. This poem opens with a delicate flourish of description and detail and ends the same. Soto not only uses detail to describe the occasion, but also describes the weather. He describes the weather as, â€Å"cold, and weighted down (3).† Describing the weather that way creates powerful imagery. This eludes the reader to sympathize with the boy. It is cold outside but yet he is taking a girl out for a walk. This reminds the reader of the fragile nature of innocence of and youth. What grown man would walk with a woman when it’s cold and windy outside? Yet the young and idealistic boy sets out to try and impress his sweetheart on this seemingly inappropriate day. The sweet sincerity of this moment is not and cannot be lost on the audience. The poem continues with telling the reader that the boy has two oranges and a nickel in his jacket. Looking back, the reader questions the presence of the two oranges. Why on earth would a boy carry around two oranges? The answer to t his is found later on in the poem/story. He picks up the girl at her house, which he also describes as â€Å"the one whose/porch light burned yellow (10-11).† Little details about ... Free Essays on Oranges By Gary Soto Free Essays on Oranges By Gary Soto After reading â€Å"Oranges,† a poem by Gary Soto, the only words that run through my head are â€Å"how cute.† This poem is something a girl would call â€Å"the perfect date.† There are many details throughout this poem, which aid in keeping the reader intrigued. Detail can be a powerful tool for a poet, nonetheless any writer. Too much detail overwhelms the main idea, and too little makes the piece of work dry and bland. One can describe events in a simplistic style, without any figurative language or writing devices, or one can choose to fill their work with fancy words that catch the reader’s attention. This poem is just right. â€Å"Oranges† is about a young boy’s first walk with a girl. This poem shows how the simplest things in life may have the most tremendous impact on a person. This poem opens with a delicate flourish of description and detail and ends the same. Soto not only uses detail to describe the occasion, but also describes the weather. He describes the weather as, â€Å"cold, and weighted down (3).† Describing the weather that way creates powerful imagery. This eludes the reader to sympathize with the boy. It is cold outside but yet he is taking a girl out for a walk. This reminds the reader of the fragile nature of innocence of and youth. What grown man would walk with a woman when it’s cold and windy outside? Yet the young and idealistic boy sets out to try and impress his sweetheart on this seemingly inappropriate day. The sweet sincerity of this moment is not and cannot be lost on the audience. The poem continues with telling the reader that the boy has two oranges and a nickel in his jacket. Looking back, the reader questions the presence of the two oranges. Why on earth would a boy carry around two oranges? The answer to t his is found later on in the poem/story. He picks up the girl at her house, which he also describes as â€Å"the one whose/porch light burned yellow (10-11).† Little details about ...

Sugar Water in the Gas Tank Urban Legend

Sugar Water in the Gas Tank Urban Legend Internet urban legend warns of a criminal ploy to disable womens vehicles by pouring sugar water in their gas tanks. Does this trick really work? Description: Urban legendCirculating since: Oct. 2005 (this version)Status: Dubious (see details below) Example Email contributed Oct. 14, 2005: Subject: Warning....be alert!Thought this might be worth passing on.Subject: FW: Warning....be alert! Target in Olathe.I just wanted to let you all know of something that happened to me today in the Target parking lot. be aware of this and let everyone you know aware so this does not happen to anyone else. I was at Target today to return something which only took a couple of minutes. when I pulled into the parking lot a man in a car pulled in a couple spaces down from me. he started to go into the store about the same time as I did, then turned back around and went back to his car. I went into Target returned my items and walked back out to get into my car. when I walked out, he was walking away from my car carrying a small gas can. I noticed there was fluid on the side of my car and a puddle beside it. I got into my car not sure of what happened, wrote down his license plate # and left. He followed me out of the parking lot and onto 169. I was only able to drive about a half a mile and my car started acting funny. It died on me as I was driving and I was able to pull into an area business along the highway. I just sat in my car and called the police. The man drove by three times as I waited. The police who came took a report and said that he had poured sugar water into my gas tank which is what made my car stall. It was a great way to get a woman by herself to be stranded on the streets. Luckily for me I was able to stop where there were people around. The police know where the car came from and are working on this now. Not sure what will happen but my car is now in the shop not running, but it could have been much worse for me. Just be aware that this is happening and always be aware of your surroundings. It certainly scared me and I am grateful that nothing else happened. Analysis While its not 100 percent beyond the realm of possibility, the incident described above seems unlikely to have happened given the haphazard nature of the ploy involved. Putting sugar or water in the gas tank of a vehicle can indeed cause the engine to stall- sugar, because the granules wont dissolve in gasoline and may clog the fuel filter; water, because it interrupts combustion- but neither method will produce a predictably-timed engine failure. Depending on the quantity of the foreign substance introduced, it might take minutes, hours, or even days for the stall to occur, if it occurs at all. The same would hold true if the foreign substance was a sugar-water mixture. Dissolved in water, the sugars effect would be negligible, so its essentially no different than pouring plain H2O in the gas tank. The point is, the evildoer who plans to use this method to waylay his victim in a conveniently secluded spot is leaving an awful lot to chance, and, more likely than not, will fail. Which makes it unlikely that such a ploy is often used. From Kansas to Texas to North Carolina It may seem strange, then, to find email reports of incidents matching this exact description happening in Target store parking lots everywhere from Kansas to Texas to North Carolina. But its not so strange when you consider that this forwarded message has been circulating non-stop since 2005, accruing helpful bits of misinformation along the way. In this respect, the text fulfills the classic definition of what folklorists call a migratory legend, with individuals revising specific details to localize the tale before passing it along. At the same time, the story has inspired skeptical news coverage in some cities based on disavowals by local police. â€Å"It’s not happening in Hickory, police captain Clyde Deal told the Hickory, NC Daily Record after the email surfaced there in March 2007. â€Å"As far as we can tell, it’s not happening anywhere in western North Carolina.† Assistant police chief Mike Samp of Mishawaka, Indiana, gave a similar response to the South Bend Tribune: We researched it and could find no police report, which quite naturally, made us suspicious. Police in Wheeling, Ohio simply dismissed it as a hoax. Another Close Call Sifting through email archives, we discovered a variant of this story dating from November 2002 in which a perpetrator who disables a womans car with sugar water is captured by police and found to have an array of kidnapping implements hidden in his van. This alternate version bears a general similarity to the one weve already seen, but is also reminiscent of The Knife in the Briefcase, an urban legend circulating online since the late 90s in which a woman survives a close call in a shopping mall parking lot with a good Samaritan who turns out to be packing a knife, duct tape, and chloroform. Email contributed Nov. 11, 2002: Fw: THIS ALERT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE!!!!!!!!!!I wanted to share a TRUE story with all of you. I heard about this last week and found out, that it is indeed TRUE. This happened to Cathy Conaways sister, who lives in North Guyton. She went to the Wal-Mart in Pooler about 11:00 one night about 1-2 weeks ago. (Im sure this is familiar for a lot of us) When she parked her car, there was a van parked right next to her. She heard noise coming from inside but didnt see anyone in it. (didnt think much about it then)About 1 a.m. she was leaving and noticed that the van was now parked in front of her vehicle. Getting a little nervous ( that gut feeling) she went back inside and asked if a security guard could walk her out. As they were loading her car, the van pulled out and left. As she got on the road, she noticed the same van behind her. She went a little ways (between Pooler and Faulkville) and her car began to spit and sputter. By this time she was really scared and called 911 from her cell phone. As she pulled over, the police was right there, and the van went on by.While talking to the police the van had turned around and went back by. She pointed it out and the police went after it. The man inside was arrested and taken to jail, but was released on a $700 bond. In his van they found: HER gas cap, a gun, hunting knife, duct tape, rope, a gallon jug of sugar water, and two pairs of womens underwear!!!!!!!!!! After getting her vehicle checked out for the problem, it was determined that sugar and water had been poured into her gas tank.They have found the man and he is back in jail. He is from Walterboro, S.C. I thought I would share this with you since Christmas shopping nights are just ahead. PLEASE be aware of your surroundings where ever you go. As for me, Im getting a LOCKING gas cap. They sell them (where else but) Wal-Mart. Anyway, the bottom line is: BE CAREFUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Remember the lady that went missing from Rincon several months ago? They found her car , I think in the Freds parking lot, but still have not found her. Makes you wonder, doesnt it Cautionary tales are meant to instruct, and in a vague sense these examples may be edifying even though theyre false, in that they remind potential crime victims to take note of their surroundings and be wary of the advances of strangers when alone. But they also mislead, diverting attention to fictional scenarios and creating a climate of fear. Remember the fable of the boy who cried wolf? People will only be deceived so many times before they just stop listening, and that defeats the purpose. Sources I Put Sugar in My Husbands Gas Tank... Car TalkDont Panic, Widespread Email Warning Women Just a Prank. Hickory Record (North Carolina).Another Urban Legend Gets Debunked. South Bend Tribune, 10 March 2007.Hoax Email Aimed at Women. WTOV-TV News, 28 February 2007.What If I Put Sugar in Someones Gas Tank? How Stuff Works.

Social Media Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 2

Social Media - Assignment Example k is convenient and easy to get started with on your own procedures since it involves active participation in your Facebook page and promoting marketing developments in the page that is visible to other people who use Facebook website. Today, the social network has over 400 million members. Therefore, in social media marketing, Facebook becomes incredibly beneficial in promoting products across the globe through the use of social media (Evans, 2010.p 15). The procedures of using Facebook include registering a business page and keeping personal photos and information in isolation. Additionally, filling out the aspects of business profile, especially email and website address (Tuten & Solomon, 2013). This makes it simpler for other people and customers to find a company off of Facebook and still transact business activities. Besides, in the Facebook page, one can advertise specials and offer coupon codes to fans. Facebook advertising is fairly priced and gives an opportunity to market audiences by age, location and gender. The keywords in their profiles and other items can be found in the Facebook page to market more audiences and products. In this paper, Facebook has been discussed as the major social media outlet with components of a legally astute Facebook marketing manager, methods of alternative dispute resolution, consumer transactions on Facebook, branches of government, agency relationship and finally, media providers and business that utilize social network site for advertising (Funk, 2013.p 19) Four components exists as a legally astute manager (1) setting value laden attitudes based on the importance of law to firm success (2) proactive tactic to ruling (3) ability to exercise informed judgment when managing legal aspects of business and finally (4) the context of specific knowledge of law and appropriate use of legal tools (The Role Of the Media, 2004). A good manager needs to set overloaded attitudes towards obedience of laws that govern the firm for

Individual Reports on Group Presentations Essay

Individual Reports on Group Presentations - Essay Example Apart from this they presented us with the pros and cons of genetic programming. Discussion of the Topic The idea of code evolving the way human genes evolve is really very fascinating and novel but the progress made so far and the results shown by genetic programming are very narrow and limiting (William B. Langdon, 2002).the group showcased SIRI as a masterpiece of genetic programming but I consider it to be a simple algorithm which cannot be compared to evolve like the human genes. Genetic programming as of now can be considered to be only a slight variation on solution searching algorithm (Larson, 2009).The focus of Genetic programming in SIRI or even in robotics has been to converge to a solution. The application of genetic programming only to converge to a solution as quickly as possible is not the way human genes function. So either the name genetic programming needs to be changed or tweaked to make drastic progress in the field. The progress till now has been a failure. (Nave t, 2006)The group has mentioned in one of the cons of genetic programming that it uses a lot of computer power. This according to me is no more a disadvantage. The recent progress in computing means that we have more computer cycles than we have use for. So genetic programming is no more unviable due to the computing power it uses. However it will surely become unviable if it does not produces better results. The future research in robotics called as evolutionary robotics may be the way forward to further develop genetic programming. This is something that the group failed to look into in their presentation. Genetic programming where programs generate future programs is the bedrock of artificial intelligence. In order to make robots which can follow our orders or even phones which are really smart, genetic programming needs to evolve a lot. It can make human work easier and help us to reach new levels in industrialisation and development. However genetic programming also threatens t o make a lot of human resource obsolete and redundant. If programmes can regenerate, there will be little use of software engineers and programmers. However it is still a long way to go before all that happens. In its present form genetic programming have been a failure and not the promising revolution which the group wants us to believe it is. Marking and Justification Marks: Content Topic Marks Justification Research 15/20 The topic was well researched and presented in a way that a novice can understand. Relevance 7/10 Stuck to the brief but the only drawback was to discuss the failure of genetic programming till now. Topicality 6/10 Robotics and GP not linked Conclusions 8/20 No justification for conclusions given by the group. Marks: Presentation Topic Marks Justification Clarity 8/10 Speakers were loud and easily audible. Structure 5/10 When the speaker changed, there was a break in the flow of thoughts which indicated lack of practice. Materials 9/10 The slides and visual aids were of extremely good quality. Bonus Marks 2/10 Good appearance. Group H Description of the Topic The group focuses on cyber terrorism. The group started by defining cyber terrorism. Although there is no one fixed definition of cyber terrorism, the group chose to give two definitions which are given by United States armed forces and the Collins dictionary. They also tried to provide their own

Self-Analysis Essay -- Essays Papers

Self-Analysis Before taking this course my writing styles and habits were very different. I was the typical procrastinator because I would wait until the night before a paper was due to start it. This did not allow me enough time to properly proofread everything, which resulted in getting points deducted for simple grammatical errors that could have been avoided if I would have had the time to proofread. My writing styles have many strengths and weaknesses and I have been able to improve my writing because of them. I have learned from my strengths and weaknesses how to become a better writer. In my writing, I have many strengths, some that which I have developed through this course and some that I already had. Before this class, I was able to pick out good content for my papers and concentrate on including the most important material. Also before this course I was able to develop paragraphs well. I was able to have good structure and format within my paragraphs. I was also able to think of the best order for them to go in so that the paper would flow well. However aft...

Traffic Movement in Lufthansa Airlines: a Supply Chain Perspective

Journal of Services Research Volume 10 Number 2 October 2010 – March 2011 FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. Debadyuti Das Associate Professor, Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. The Journal of IIMT FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Debadyuti DasThe present paper attempts to find out the forecasted passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines on quarterly basis at a global level by employing four forecasting methods namely moving average, exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model with the help of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. The study has also found out the forecasting errors of all the four methods through Absolute error (AE), Mean squared error (MSE), Mean absolute deviation (MAD ) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).The study also carried out the comparative analyses of the above forecasting methods in the light of the available data. The findings reveal that the forecasting errors are the least in case of Winter's model. Further the forecasted values suggested by Winter's model more closely resemble the observed data of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. This provides a valuable insight to the top management as regards formulation of suitable strategies for addressing the varying demand of passenger traffic movement.Few strategies in respect of both demand side and supply side options have been suggested with a view to improving the overall supply chain profit of Lufthansa Airlines. INTRODUCTION irlines industry across the globe is currently undergoing recession due to severe financial crisis faced by the major economies of the world. As per the estimates of International Air Transport Association (IATA), globally air travel has declin ed by 2. 9% and 1. 3% during September and October, 2008 respectively compared to the same months in the previous year.Segment-wise passenger traffic estimates provided by IATA further reveal that the Asia Pacific Carriers and North American Carriers registered a decline in passenger traffic flow by 6. 1% and 0. 9% respectively in October, 2008 compared to the same month in the previous year. African Carriers recorded the largest decline in traffic flow by 12. 9% in October, 2008 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011)  ©2010 by Institute for International Management and Technology. All Rights Reserved. A 4 Forecasting the Passenger compared to the same month in the previous year. The remaining segments namely European, Latin American and Middle Eastern Airlines experienced a moderate growth in its traffic flow to the tune of 1. 8%, 4. 5% and 3. 5% respectively in October, 2008 (IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, 2008b). Howe ver, the financial crisis sweeping across the globe does not appear to have much negative impact on Lufthansa Airlines in respect of its passenger traffic flow till September, 2008 as revealed from the data provided in table 2a.A cursory observation into the table 2 further demonstrates that the passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines has been following a very systematic pattern since October, 2006 to September, 2008. There has been hardly any departure from the pattern observed in passenger traffic movement during the above period. Despite difficult market conditions, Lufthansa passenger Airlines was able to achieve a sales growth of 4. 2% and 0. 7% in September and October, 2008 respectively.It registered an increase in its passenger traffic flow in three major markets namely America (North/South), Asia/ Pacific, and Middle East & Africa both during September and October, 2008. American segment recorded a growth rate of 6. 9% and 1% during September and October, 2008 respecti vely. Asia/Pacific region exhibited an increasing trend of 8. 8% and 6% while Middle East and African region recorded an increasing trend of 2. 5% and 11% during September and October, 2008 respectively. Only European market experienced a declining trend to the tune of 0. 4% and 3% during the above periods (Lufthansa Investor Info, page 1, 2008).The above phenomenon has motivated us to apply the most popular and well-established forecasting methods with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines for future periods. The main objective of the paper is to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines at a global level with the help of moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), Holt’s model and Winter’s model by making use of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa Airlines.In addition, the paper has also attempted to find out the most suitable forecasting model for the above problem by comparing the forecasting errors of the above four forecasting models obtained through absolute error (AE), mean squared error (MSE), mean Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 65 Singh, Das absolute deviations (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The following section provides a brief review of literature. Section 3 provides a brief overview of Lufthansa Airlines along with the recent data on passenger traffic movement.It contains a thorough analysis of forecasted passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods and the comparative analysis of the same. Section 4 suggests few strategies for absorbing the varying nature of demand. The paper is concluded with a brief summary, potential contribution and limitations of the same. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Forecasting literature is replete with a number of studies ranging from simple time-series forecasting models to economet ric models as also the forecasting models employing artificial intelligence techniques etc.Researchers have employed the forecasting models with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of traffic for a particular period. However, the study findings reveal that there does not exist a single model which consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Quantitative forecasting methods can be categorized under three broad heads: (1) time-series modeling, (2) econometric models and (3) other quantitative models (Song and Li, 2008). Under time-series models, several techniques are available, e. g.Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model, Winter’s Model, ARIMA etc. (Makridakis et al, 2003). In time-series model, particular attention is paid to exploring the historic trends and patterns of the time-series involved and to predict the future of this series based on trends and patterns identified in the model. Since time-series models require only historica l observations of a variable, it is less costly in data collection and model estimation. However, these models cannot account for the changes in demand that might occur in different periods.The major advantages of econometric models over time-series models lie in their ability to analyze the causal relationships between the demand and its influencing factors (Song and Li, 2008; Makridakis et al, 2003). It is possible for econometric models to take into consideration several variables together, for example, air fare charged by an airline, competitive fare offered by other airlines, promotional campaign, perceived security threat, price and income elasticity of Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 6 Forecasting the Passenger demand etc. However, it is difficult and costly to collect data on each individual variable, incorporate the same into the model and explain its contribution towards the dependent variable. A number of new quantitati ve forecasting methods, predominantly Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, have emerged in forecasting literature. The main advantage of AI techniques is that it does not require any preliminary or additional information about data such as distribution and probability (Song and Li, 2008).Table 1 provides a brief overview of some related works pertaining to forecasting and traffic movement in airlines. Table 1: Brief Overview of Few Works Relating to Traffic Movement in Airlines Author Choo and Mokhtarian (2007) Contribution Developed a conceptual model in a comprehensive framework, considering causal relationships among travel, telecommunications, land use, economic activity and socio-demographics and explored the aggregate relationships between telecommunications and travel using structural equation modeling of national time-series data spanning 1950-2000 in the US.Proposed an artificial neural network (ANN) structure for seasonal time-series forecasting. Results found by the p roposed ANN model were compared with the traditional statistical models which reveal that the prediction error of the proposed model is lower than the traditional models. The proposed model is especially suitable when the seasonality in time-series is very strong. Developed a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport.The existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world is considered. In addition, the growth rates by country or region is also taken into account. The future origin and destination demand in then converted into route traffic subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. Applied Static-regression trend-fitting model for the purpose of forecasting future tourism demand in North Cyprus.Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to China and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to Australia for the purpose of forecasting business tourism and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Employed autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for the purpose of forecasting tourism demand at Greece.Hamzacebi (2008) Dennis (2002) Bicak, Altinay and Jenkins (2005) Kulendran and Shan (2002) Kulendran and Witt (2003) Dritsakis and Athanasiadia (2000) THE CASE OF LUFTHANSA AIRLINES Deutsche Lufthansa (Lufthansa), the third largest airlines of Europe, is the world’s fifth largest airline in terms of overall passengers carried and operating services to 209 destinations in 81 countries. It has the 6th largest passenger airline fleet in the world.Lufthansa is headquartered in Cologne, Germany with its main base and primary traffic hub at Frankfurt International Airport in Frankfurt and a second hub at Munich International Airport. Lufthansa has built a premium b rand synonymous with quality, innovation, reliability, competence and safety despite operating in a tough market where cost cutting is commonplace. Lufthansa founded the world’s first multilateral airline grouping, ‘Star Alliance’ along with Air Canada, SAS, Thai Airways and United Airlines.At the same time, the airline invested in the most advanced passenger aircrafts and in 1999 it embarked on a vast IT programme that would transform the revenue and profit of its passenger Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 67 Singh, Das airline business (Lufthansa, Wikipedia, 2008). However, estimating the demand of passenger traffic for a particular period has always been the principal determinant in generating revenue for the airline. Table 2a shows the passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa (excluding the number in Swiss Airlines) Airlines for the period during October, 2006 to September, 2008.Table 2 (a): Monthly Traffic F low for the Last Two Years Traffic Year – Month Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Passenger traffic (in thousands) 4936 4327 3969 3851 3820 4668 4635 4991 5003 5241 5067 5193 5241 4604 4132 4141 4223 4625 5031 5152 5203 5171 4883 5164 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000Table 2 (b): Quarterly Data of Passenger Quarters Passenger traffic Source of data: Key data, Lufthansa Investor Relations, 2008; Lufthansa Investor Info, page 2, 2008 The monthly passenger traffic shown in table 2 (a) has been utilized to calculate the quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 68 Forecasting the Passenger (from Quarter 4, 2006 to Quarter 3, 2008) w hich has been shown in table 2 (b).With the help of these quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years, we have attempted to find out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods namely 4-period Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model and Winter’s Model. Table 3 presents the forecasted values through 4-quarter moving average while table 4 shows the forecasted data through simple exponential smoothing. Table 5 and 6 shows the forecasting through Holt’s model along with forecasting errors.Table 7 through 10 reveals, in detail, the forecasted demand of the passenger traffic flow by employing Winter’s Model. Table 10 also includes the forecasting errors. The exercise reveals that the forecasting errors are the lowest in case of Winter’s Model which are indicated by the values of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Moreover, the quarterly forecasted values suggested by Winter’s Mode l closely follow historical pattern which is clearly depicted in figure 1. FORECASTING THROUGH 4-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE (MA) Moving Average method is generally employed in a situation in which only level, i. e. eseasonalized demand is present and neither trend nor seasonality is observed. We took the average traffic flow of four quarters starting from the 4th quarter of 2006 and continued the exercise till the 3 rd quarter of 2008 for the purpose of finding out the forecasted passenger traffic movement in the immediate following quarter. Table 3 presents the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement through four-quarter MA method. In the same table, the values of forecasting errors measured in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE are also shown. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 9 Singh, Das Table 3: Forecasting through 4-Period Moving Average & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) Forecast (F) Four Period Moving Average Method Absolute Error Mean Squared Error Error (E) (AE) (MSE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 2006 Q- 4 13232000 2007 Q- 1 12339000 2007 Q- 2 14629000 2007 Q- 3 15501000 13925250 2007 Q- 4 13977000 14111500 13925250 2008 Q- 1 12989000 14274000 14111500 2008 Q- 2 15386000 14463250 14274000 2008 Q- 3 15218000 14392500 14463250 -51750 1122500 -1112000 -754750 51750 1122500 1112000 754750 2678062500 6. 31342E+11 8. 3076E+11 7. 67219E+11 51750 587125 762083. 3333 760250 % Error MAPE Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14392500 0. 37025113 0. 37025113 8. 64192779 4. 50608946 7. 22734954 5. 41317615 4. 95958733 5. 29977895 Formula used Systematic demand = Level Lt= (Dt + Dt-1+†¦.. Dt-n+1)/N Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (ES) Like moving average method, exponential smoothing is also used in a situation, in which only level is observed. However, ES attempts to smoothen the fluctuations observed in demand data o f different periods through smoothing constant (alpha).We first calculated the level of passenger traffic flow of the initial period by taking the average of actual traffic flow for the last eight quarters, which has been considered as the forecasted value of passenger traffic flow for quarter 1. Table 4 demonstrates the forecasted values through simple ES. The same table also contains the values of forecasting errors expressed in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 70 Forecasting the Passenger Table 4: Forecasting through Simple Exponential Smoothing & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 % Error 7. 0479897 13. 9977916 5. 02789835 9. 89599461 1. 02611209 8. 60018261 9. 04478131 7. 12621269 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 MAPE 7. 00479897 10. 5012953 8. 67682963 8. 98162087 7. 39051912 7. 5921297 7. 79965136 7. 71547153 Formula used Systematic de mand = Level Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt Lt+1=alpha(Dt+1)+(1-alpha)Lt alpha=0. 1 Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14241980 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 8 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 14241979. 66 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 88 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 926875 1727187. 5 -735531. 25 -1533978. 1 143419. 688 1117077. 72 -1391630. 1 -1084467 926875 1727187. 5 735531. 25 1533978. 125 143419. 6875 1117077. 719 1391630. 053 1084467. 048 8. 59097E+11 1. 92114E+12 1. 46109E+12 1. 68409E+12 1. 35139E+12 1. 33413E+12 1. 42021E+12 1. 38969E+12 926875 1327031. 25 1129864. 583 1230892. 969 1013398. 313 1030678. 214 1082242. 762 1082520. 98 Forecast (F) Simple Exponential Smoothing Method Absolute Error Error (E) (AE) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Average Deviation (MAD) (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH HOLT'S MODEL We carried out a regression analysis wherein Time period was considered on X-axis and passenger traffic data was taken on Y-axis in order to find out the initial level and trend. Holt's model, also known as trend-corrected exponential smoothing, is applicable in a situation, in which level and trend are observed in the demand data. However, seasonality is not considered in Holt's model.We used the â€Å"Linest Function†of Microsoft Excel to calculate the values of L0 and T0, which is shown in table 5. Table 5: Regression to Find Initial Level and Trend for Holt's Model x (Period) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 270154. 7619 T0 y (Traffic) 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 12943178. 57 L0 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 71 Singh, Das Once the initial values of level of trend are found, the subsequent values of the level and trend of each period are iteratively calculated following Holt's model which is shown in table 6.This finally helps in finding out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement as per Holt's model, which is shown in table 6. Table 6 also reveals the forecasting errors. Table 6: Forecasting through Holt's Model Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Trend(T) 270528. 095 Level (L) 13215200 Forecast (F) 13213333. 33 13485728. 1 13618648. 82 13987484. 49 14436906. 91 14679788. 95 14765767 15095251. 1 Error (E) -18666. 67 1146728. 1 -1010351 -1513516 459906. 91 1690788. 9 -620233 -122748. 1 Absolute Error (AE) 18666. 66667 1146728. 095 1010351. 181 1513515. 506 459906. 9118 1690788. 949 620232. 9957 122748. 0864 T8=269916. 6 15377443 15647360 15917276 16187193 Formula used Systematic demand = Ft+1=Lt+T t alpha =0. 1 Beta = 0. 2 Lt+1 = alpha(D t+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+T t) T t+1= beta(Lt+1-Lt)+(1-beta)Tt Lev el + Trend Ft+n =Lt+nT t Mean Squared Error (MSE) 348444444. 4 6. 57667E+11 7. 78714E+11 1. 15672E+12 9. 67677E+11 1. 28286E+12 1. 15455E+12 1. 01211E+12 270154. 762 12943178. 7 247593. 533 13371055. 29 267800. 557 13719683. 94 298070. 867 14138836. 04 288872. 729 14390916. 22 255056. 95 267461. 61 14510710. 05 14827790. 3 269916. 571 15107526. 72 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 18666. 66667 582697. 381 725248. 6476 922315. 3622 829833. 6721 973326. 2183 922884. 3294 822867. 299 % Error 0. 141072148 9. 293525369 6. 906495187 9. 763986233 3. 290455117 13. 0170833 4. 031151668 0. 806598018 MAPE 0. 141072148 4. 717298758 5. 447030901 6. 526269734 5. 879106811 7. 068769558 6. 634824146 5. 90629588 L8=15107527 F9 F10 F11 F12 Forecasted Traffic Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH WINTER'S MODEL Winter’s model, also known as trend and seasonality-corrected ES, is generally employed in a situation in which all characteristic features of demand data, i. e. level (Lt), trend (Tt) and seasonality (St) are observed. The actual demand (Dt), being seasonal in nature, is transformed into deseasonalized demand (Ddt ). The deseasonalized demand data and corresponding time periods are employed to run regression analysis in order to calculate the initial level (L0) and trend (T0) which is shown in table 7.The values of L0 and T0 are then used to find out the estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) of passenger traffic of different time periods. Seasonal factors for each period are calculated using the formula Dt /(Dt) as shown in table 8. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 72 Forecasting the Passenger Table 7: Regression Analysis for Finding out the Deseasonalized Demand X (Period) 3 4 5 6 140439. 5 Y (Deseasonalized demand)(Ddt) 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13619931 T0 L0 Table 8: Calculation of Seasonal Factors for Winter's ModelPeriod(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13760370. 5 13900810 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 5 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 0. 961602015 0. 887646116 1. 041858846 1. 093029187 0. 97590243 0. 898111594 1. 053618578 1. 032187385 Quarters Actual demand (Dt ) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Dt =L+Tt Seasonal factors (Dt / D t) Subsequently seasonality (St) is recalculated for each period as per Winter's model which is shown in table 9.Level and trend of each period are also iteratively calculated following Winter's model which have been mentioned in detail in table 9. Finally table 10 demonstrates the forecasted data of passenger traffic flow along with forecasting errors. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 73 Singh, Das Table 9: Determination of Level, Trend and Seasonal Factors (Winter's Model) Period(t) Quarters Actual Traffic (Dt) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) 13760370. 5 13900810 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 Seasonality St Level(L) Trend(T) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 0. 968752222 0. 892878855 1. 047738712 1. 062608286 0. 968072702 0. 892415518 1. 047252432 1. 065603208 0. 968770988 0. 892874843 1. 047722994 1. 062255808 13619931 13755292. 34 13891430. 02 14027555. 72 14187811. 57 14334567. 79 14480348. 88 14626058. 49 14744278 140439. 5 139931. 6844 139552. 284 139209. 6254 141314. 2474 141858. 4444 142250. 709 142596. 999 140158. 8902 Table 10: Forecasting through Winter's Model and the Forecasting Errors Forecast(F) 13330389. 5 12406751. 72 14700803. 33 15053722. 24 13871635. 54 12918987. 41 15313552. 98 15737526. 24 Error(E) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 -447 277. 7569 -105364. 4571 -70012. 58968 -72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Absolute Error(AE) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 447277. 7569 105364. 4571 70012. 58968 72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Mean Squared Error (MSE) 9680494002 7135394612 6475502625 54870974917 46117113697 39247888533 34390843099 63830427174 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 98389. 0148 83070. 60949 79314. 85071 171305. 5772 158117. 3532 143433. 226 133292. 3392 181571. 577 % Error 0. 743572411 0. 549085967 0. 490828718 2. 885476788 0. 753841719 0. 539014471 0. 470863243 3. 413893032 MAPE 0. 743572411 0. 646329189 0. 594495699 1. 167240971 1. 084561121 0. 993636679 0. 91895476 1. 230822044 L8=14407445 T8=3284577 Formula used Systematic component of demand =(level+demand)*seasonal factor Ft+1 = (Lt+T t)St+1 Ft+i=(Lt+iTt)St+i L t+1 = alpha (Dt+1/St+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+Tt) T t+1= Beta (Lt+1 – Lt) + (1- Beta)T t St+p+1= gamma (Dt+1/Lt+1) + (1-gamma)St+1 Alpha = 0. 5 beta=0. 1 gamma=0. 1 Forecasted traffic F9 F10 F11 F12 14419 610. 62 13415083. 6 15888462. 17 16257733. 32 (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) COMPARISON AMONG FOUR FORECASTING METHODS The following figure gives an interesting revelation regarding the behaviour of forecasted data by comparing the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic obtained through all four methods. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 74 Forecasting the Passenger Historical traffic Forecasted traffic Moving Average Simple exponential smoothing Holt’s Model Winter’s ModelFigure 1: Comparison among four forecasting methods The portion of the graph before the vertical line indicates historical data while the portion of the graph after the line is the forecasted data. The forecasted data of the model graph (Winter's Model) replicates the historical data. It indicates a positive trend as well as seasonality. FORMULATION OF SUITABLE STRATEGIES FOR ABSORBING VARYING DEMAND Keeping in view the overall objective of impr oving the supply chain profit, the management should explore all possible alternatives of both demand side as well as supply side options.It is observed that demand for passenger traffic movement is not uniform throughout the year. In order to level the demand, the management of the airlines can undertake the following well-established measures: †¢ †¢ Formulate suitable marketing strategies to create new demand in the lean period. During peak periods, when the demand will exceed capacity, the management needs to offer seats to the customers who will pay the highest fares. Of course, other customers need to be motivated and informed that they would probably be charged less fare, if they undertake their trip at some other period.Shift some proportion of demand from peak period to lean period by offering the customers a reasonable rate of discount in the lean period. Of course, the cost/benefit analysis of this exercise has to be thoroughly examined beforehand. †¢ Journa l of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 75 Singh, Das †¢ Considering the lean periods of the airline in different routes and destinations, the top management needs to explore new destinations which may appear to be very attractive from the perspective of the customers.Accordingly the management can withdraw some of the flights from the existing underloaded routes and ply the same in the new routes. Alternatively the management needs to examine the passenger traffic data of different routes on monthly/quarterly basis. If it is found that during the same period, some destinations experience very high demand while others have low demand, the management may withdraw some of the flights from underutilized routes and introduce the same in the heavily loaded routes. †¢In all cases, the detailed cost/benefit analysis of different alternatives is to be thoroughly examined. Then a particular course of a strategy or a combination of strategies m ay be adopted by the management. CONCLUSION The present study has attempted to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow of Lufthansa Airlines by employing the four forecasting methods, viz. moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model. The forecasted data suggested by Winter's model reflect the historical pattern in a better manner than three other forecasting methods.This gives a valuable insight to the managers regarding formulation of appropriate strategies in order to absorb varying nature of demand in different quarters. The same kind of study can be replicated in other airlines with suitable modifications. Of course, the present work have not taken into consideration important factors, for example, the prevailing slowdown in the global economy, perceived security threat in the wake of terrorist strikes at different parts of the globe etc.Moreover, the study has considered the total passenger traffic movement of Lufthan sa as a whole and has not paid attention to an individual market segment. This may not provide a clear picture to the management regarding increase or decrease in traffic flow in a particular segment. Future study should take care of this aspect. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 76 Forecasting the Passenger The implications of varying demand on supply side need to be thoroughly examined and accordingly suitable strategies should be adopted for improving the profit across the whole supply chain.REFERENCES Bicak, H. A. , Altinay, M. & Jenkins, H. (2005) ‘Forecasting tourism demand of North Cyprus', Journal of Hospitality and Leisure Marketing, Vol. 12, pp. 87-99. Chopra, S and Meindl, P (2007) Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning & Operation, 3rd edition, Pearson Education, New Delhi. Choo S. and Mokhtarian, P. L. (2007) ‘Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US', Transportation Research Part A, 41 pp. 4 -18. Dennis, N. P. S. 2002) ‘Long-term forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport', Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 8, pp. 313-324. Dritsakis, N. and Athanasiadis, S. (2000) ‘An econometric model of tourist demand: The case of Greece', Journal of Hospitality and Leisure Marketing, Vol. 7, pp. 39-49. Hamzacebi, C. (2008) ‘Improving artificial neural networks' performance in seasonal time series forecasting', Information Sciences, Vol. 178, pp. 4550-4559. IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, Facts & Figures – 2008 Traffic Results, Montreal, Quebec, viewed 30 November,