Dreams of Aviation essays

Dreams of Aviation articles Since the time I was only a youth I have consistently had an interest with planes. At the point when I took my first stumble on a plane I was extremely uncomfortable with it. At that point they carried me into the cockpit and let me see all the instruments and we discussed how planes functioned. My feelings of trepidation all transformed into interests and I understood how unwinding being noticeable all around truly was. After that I was practically certain that I needed to engage with planes. I got some answers concerning a program that could assist me with getting progressively engaged with planes and perhaps assist me with getting a vocation in an aeronautics field of work. The program I got into is called Civil Air Patrol. Common Air Patrol (CAP) is an Air Force helper that completes non-battle missions for the benefit of the U.S Air power. The normal period of individuals in my group is 15. The gathering has developed from 14 enrollees a year ago to 20 legitimately after the 9-11 debacle. The program shows Aerospace, authority, and general abilities fundamental in crisis circumstance. For instance, the CAP is liable for most inquiry and salvage crucial the United States. We learn abilities in mock missions called SAREXs. (Search and Rescue Excercises) I joined CAP since I needed to create individual order. Top permits me to get too practice individual order. I win decorations when I complete assignments and tests. These awards demonstrate that I have finished the essential aptitudes expected to endeavor further developed aeronautics preparing programs sooner rather than later. The program has helped improved my confidence and I realize that I am a piece of an esteemed group in my locale. I additionally joined on the grounds that sometime I try to be a pilot with my own contract plane organization. Later on, joining the Air Force could help me by permitting me an opportunity to encourage my insight into airplane and furthermore experience airplane direct, and furthermore assist me with gaining flight hours. The Air Force would be an advantage to me since I would be around numerous others with s ... <!

Management of Information Security and Control

Conceptual Information is a significant element of any association. This is on the grounds that no business can work without it. In the ebb and flow business condition whereby the PC has interconnected organizations and exchanges are not, at this point helped out through administrative work, data framework has become a significant piece of an organization.Advertising We will compose a custom research paper test on Management of Information Security and Control explicitly for you for just $16.05 $11/page Learn More Therefore the administration of data ought to be one of the needs if the association is to be fruitful. Be that as it may, the worry for data security has additionally ascended in the ongoing past. In some business the need to ensure data resources has even outperformed that of physical resources. This is so on the grounds that any business in the present data condition that expects to be serious and continue development must be prepared to create and misuse just as ensure its data resources. Data Security Needs of an association Information security needs of an association allude to reasons why an association may think that its important to have data security and control. They are as per the following: To secure the usefulness of the business since when activities are interfered with, costs that could somehow or another have been maintained a strategic distance from are brought about. Associations need to have a framework that guarantees that activities are done easily which implies there are no interferences and work likewise works out as expected. All things considered, the senior supervisor and the IT chiefs need to structure and execute a data framework that removes gatecrashers just as human blunder that may intrude on activities (Whitman Mattord, 2008) Secondly, an association needs to guarantee that its activity applications are protected. These applications incorporate electronic mail, working framework stages just as texting. The laws overse eing data security grant harms to the offended party and these harms are now and again correctional. Accordingly any association needs to guarantee that its data framework can't be utilized to encroach other peoples’ rights as this winds up costing the association. This implies all data framework applications should be evaluated to guarantee that they don't represent a security danger to clients (Whitman Mattord, 2008). Thirdly, there is the requirement for shielding innovation resources so as to continue development. As an association develops it needs to think of secure programming and framework that encourages it to continue that development. For example an association may create advancements that help it to have an edge over its competitors.Advertising Looking for inquire about paper on business financial matters? We should check whether we can support you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More As such, its systems must develop to have the option to oblige its chan ging needs in any case the contenders will handily approach its new advancements and use them to exceed the organization. A portion of the measures that can be taken to shield an association from its rivals incorporate security of assembling methods, concoction formulae and mechanical advancements (Kouns Minoli, 2010). Fourthly, there is the need to secure information that is utilized by associations. An association can't design adequately and convey an incentive to customers on the off chance that it misfortunes its record of exchanges. Any business element, government office or whatever other organization that is working in the cutting edge business condition, where responsive administrations rely upon data frameworks to offer help to exchanges, must secure its information. For that information to be solid, the administration needs to guarantee that the procedures of assortment, stockpiling and use can't be meddled with. In any case the choices caused will to not be successful or even helpful to the association (Kouns Minoli, 2010). Kinds of dangers engaged with the administration of data security and proper control estimates Threats allude to any substance †individual or article †that represents a security hazard to an organization’s resources. There are different dangers that face data, frameworks or individuals of an association. This implies the administration should know about vehicle, handling and capacity frameworks that need security from dangers. For example, when an association interfaces with the web then dangers that begin from the outside sources will undoubtedly increment. There are different classifications that show the sorts of dangers and what in the association is looked by that danger. In any case, every association needs to discover the need dangers that it needs to manage. The prioritization will rely upon the security circumstance of its working condition, the presentation levels of its benefits and its hazard system ( Whitman Mattord, 2008). The classifications of dangers incorporate demonstrations of human mistake, which alludes to acts managed without pernicious aims. Individuals are probably going to do botches when utilizing data frameworks. This might be because of insufficient preparing, creation of presumptions that are off base or in any event, working under weakness. Representatives include among the best security dangers since they use organization’s information consistently thus making them the nearest danger specialists. This implies their slip-ups can subvert the trustworthiness, accessibility just as the secrecy of information. Their errors can likewise represent a danger to the association or to untouchables. For example they can coincidentally uncover characterized data, erase or even adjust information (Whitman Mattord, 2008)Advertising We will compose a custom research paper test on Management of Information Security and Control explicitly for you for just $16.05 $11/page Learn More Most of the missteps can be forestalled via completing nonstop mindfulness exercises, preparing and furthermore setting up controls. The controls can go from the necessity that a client types a significant order twice to the prerequisite that a specific order be checked by a subsequent gathering. The second class of danger is banter demonstration of trespass. This alludes to a demonstration where an unapproved individual purposefully accesses an organization’s secured data. Albeit some data gathering methods are worthy, some data gatherers use strategies that are past the lawful or moral limit. A portion of these assaults can cost the firm monetarily or scratch its notoriety with customers. This danger can be forestalled by setting up controls that inform a trespasser at whatever point they attempt to get to unapproved zones. Important data and frameworks can likewise be ensured by utilizing sound verification and approval standards. Such controls utilize numerous elements or layers to keep the unapproved clients from obtaining entrance (Alberts Dorofee, 2002). Powers of nature or demonstrations of God are another type of dangers. These kinds of dangers are extremely risky as they normally occur with little on no notice by any means. They can meddle with information stockpiling, its transmission or even its use. They incorporate the accompanying: fire, which can torch the structure that houses part or the entirety of the data framework. Furthermore, there is floods which alludes to water that is flooding to territories that are required to be dry under typical conditions. This can wind up wrecking part or the entirety of the data framework. It can likewise forestall access to the structure that houses the framework. Thirdly, there is quake which alludes to an unexpected shaking of the earth’s covering because of the volcanic movement underneath the earth surface. This straightforwardly influences the framework as it can crush part or the entirety of the framework, just as the structure where the framework is housed (Vacca, 2009). In conclusion, there is helping, which alludes to an unexpected characteristic electric release inside the environment. This additionally directly affects the framework as it can pulverize part or the entirety of the framework or its capacity segments. Every one of these dangers can't be controlled in essence; anyway they can be alleviated by buying protection arrangements that address every one of the protection dangers (Vacca, 2009) A product assault is another data security danger and it includes an individual or gathering thinking of a malignant code or pernicious programming to assault an organization’s data framework. These projects are planned so that they can harm the objective frameworks or even deny access.Advertising Searching for explore paper on business financial aspects? We should check whether we can support you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Find out More They take different structures which incorporate infections, which are programming that connect themselves on different projects and can devastate the framework when initiated. Infections can be constrained by utilizing hostile to infections which keep them from getting to a PC framework. Besides are worms, which can recreate themselves a few times with the end goal that they fill the PC memory. Against infections can likewise be utilized to control them as they are equipped for identifying them and hindering their presentation (Vacca, 2009) Technical equipment disappointment is another kind of danger whereby an association buys gear that has a deformity from a maker. The imperfection can be known or obscure. Such blemishes can bring about surprising execution of the framework, for example, temperamental help. These can in this way lead to misfortunes to the association, some which are irreversible. The best control measure is to guarantee that the association buys from solid merchan ts who can offer items with ensures just as quality items. Be that as it may, it is likewise significant that customary check ups and administration be done to the types of gear in order to have the option to identify abandons ahead of time and right them (Vacca, 2009). Hazard the board Before characterizing hazard the executives it is imperative to characterize the key terms that make up its definition. Danger: alludes to any occasion, object or

Truly Understanding Perfect Competition

Truly Understanding Perfect Competition WHAT IS THE PERFECT COMPETITION?If you live in a democracy, you’re witness to ‘free market’ and the ideal perfect competition, which honestly, seldom exists.Yet, economists vouch for it, and you get to read about it on your Economics Majors or even when you’re doing your MBA.We have all heard the words “Perfect Competition” at some point in our lives; be it at an Economics class, the news or your intellectual sibling showing off at the dinner table.We’ve all heard it, but what exactly does it mean and does something like this exist in our current world?Technically, no.Perfect Competition is a scenario used by the economists and businessmen of the world to illustrate a certain situation, learn about its characteristics and gain insights, which can, in turn, be used in the real world.The assumptions used in this scenario are very strong, and the chances of it happening in the real world are next to nothing.A perfectly competitive market means exactly what it says.Think of it as an opposite of a monopoly, which is where one single business owns all the market share and controls that market for both the consumers and other businesses.The competition level between the businesses in this market is at the highest possible level and individual businesses are not able to do anything more to improve their level over any of the others.Therefore, there is not just a single business in control but rather every one of them available in the market will be equal.You need a leader who makes the right decision, every time. We all know that it cannot happen.Here is the graph of what a perfectly competitive firm would look like. Source:  https://saylordotorg.github.io/According to strategists and economists, these types of markets will be the most beneficial to both consumers and society in general.So what makes a market perfectly competitive?Let’s break it down below.CHARACTERISTICS OF PERFECT COMPETITIONThere are several assumptions that are made when this scenario is taken into account.These assumptions are what make a market perfectly competitive, and as you will see, most of them are almost impossible to achieve in the real world.Perfect KnowledgeImagine a world where every business knows everything about the running of another business.We’re talking about production costs, supplier prices, component prices, and even advertising costs and data.There is no hiding of any information from your supplier, and thus there is no stopping all the businesses using all this data to find the cheapest source for all services and ending up using them themselves.This would mean that every competitor in that market will have the same costs, the same data and the same strategies totalling from the past, the present and the future.If you take todays markets in comparison, we can see that a lot of businesses can go out of business if we had perfect knowledge.For certain companies, if the supplier prices or the sources where they get their parts from are let out, there will be no stopping their competitors from using the same information which will make their business irrelevant to the consumers.An example of this could be Samsung with its front screen glass displays.Even Apple uses Samsung’s technology to create their screens for the XS Model and will continue to use it in the future because of its superiority to their own.However, if this information was to be publicly known, Apple would not need Samsung for this process and will start to produce their own which reduces Samsung’s brand value significantly, and Samsung will face a reduction in sales and competency.Another example would be fo r companies that are centred on their research and patents.These allow the business to be different from others and helps protect them from competitors looking to steal their ideas.But in a perfect market, these patents will not exist and any intensive research done will not be exclusive and so the whole foundation of these types of businesses will not exist, and they will not last long in the face of their competitors.Perfect knowledge in this scenario is available to all market participants which includes the consumers as well, which means that all consumers interacting in that market will have all the information as well and will know everything about each business.Homogenous ProductsWhen I first came across this word, I remember someone asking our teacher if it had something to do with evolution, like an evolutionary product.Coming from an English school, I had never seen a teacher look more mortified at our lack of knowledge with the English vocabulary. We were a year away from our Advanced Level.All joking aside, what a homogenous product means is that there is a perfect substitute for every product.This means that all businesses will create the same product, with the same features and without branding.Therefore, any product can be easily replaced by the product from another company as they will essentially be the same thing.For example, take Coca-Cola.In a perfect market there will assumedly be no other competitors like Pepsi or the other copycats that are available in today’s market, but rather there would be just one product called “Cola” which will be produced by all the businesses in this industry and there would be no other variation.As we spoke about before, there is perfect knowledge, so Coca-Cola’s infamous recipe which no other business knows will be public knowledge and thus everyone will start to follow the same methods.In a scenario like this, consumers will benefit in the form of low prices as the products are all the same and so su ppliers cannot charge a higher price for different variations and because there is perfect competition, the prices will be as low as possible so as to not lose to the other competitors.However, this will also mean that the different choices that we have in the real world will not exist and consumers are forced to buy only that one particular type of product.It is also assumed that every unit of input is homogenous and that every business has access to all factors of production.This means that every cost/input that goes into making a product such as labor costs or electricity costs will be the same for all businesses, and all the raw materials and other FOP (Factors of Production) that are needed are immediately available to any business in the market.Again, this is a major assumption as this will be impossible in the real world due to the scarcity of FOP as there are not enough resources in the world to satisfy everyone’s needs.No Barriers to Entry or ExitBarriers here refers to t he problems, rules, costs, and laws that a business will face when they attempt to enter into or exit from a market.Certain markets can be very easy to enter into but may be hard to leave and the opposite can be true as well.Barriers to entry will include set-up costs (could be expensive for technology firms, or require large amounts of capital, for instance), government laws, scarce funding methods and price cutting from competitors.Usually, if a big contender in a particular market sees that more businesses are trying to set up in the same market, they will tend to use their power to stop them from entering or drive them out before they have a chance to set up properly.They do this by undercutting their prices (selling below costs which may be impossible for a smaller business which is just starting out to do) and intensive marketing.Barriers to exit can include highly specialized assets which are really difficult to sell off or high exiting costs such as closure costs and writing off assets.Governments play a big role in the current market by establishing certain regulations and price controls in order to be able to control the entry and exit of businesses into a specific market.These rules will differ from each market, and thus certain markets will have a really high barrier to entry compared to others such as those that affect the health of consumers directly.A company which produces pharmaceutical products will have to go through a lot more processes which will lead to higher costs and so will require a high starting capital. In a perfectly competitive market, however, these government regulations do not exist, and so all the barriers are removed.It’s assumed that any business can easily enter or leave a market without any problems from the government or other suppliers and also certain markets that used to have high costs can enjoy lower rates now as they are free to plan their costs accordingly and not stick to government controls.A Large Number of B uyers and SellersIn a perfect market, there are no barriers to entry.Thus, nothing is stopping any business from entering into a market.In today’s world, there are many market places, but not all of them have a large number of buyers and sellers.It all depends on the prices of the commodity and the use or value of it.Certain markets may have a lot of sellers but not enough buyers to purchase all these products and vice versa.The reasons as to why there are so many discrepancies are scarcity, lack of information and pricing.In a perfect market, all of those characteristics are assumed to be equal, and thus it is assumed that all the markets will have a lot of buyers and sellers who work within that market.Firms are Price TakersThink about the products that we have in today’s market.There are so many different variations to a particular type of product, and they all have different prices that vary due to certain functions, brands, value, or even technicality.There are a lot of rea sons as to why a business will charge different prices for a product.Now, we can even see a large difference in prices of a similar product from which one is from a branded and known name whereas the other is a substitute many people haven’t heard of.So, we can say that prices are not derived solely from the supply and demand levels of the market but that individual businesses are price-makers and they have the power to change their prices in accordance to their market share, competency level, and brand name and so on.Each business can price their products differently and still be able to do sales.In a perfectly competitive market, businesses become price-takers. In this market, competitiveness between businesses is so high that even a small change in the price above that of the competitors would mean that the business would lose all its sales to its competitors.Since there are so many substitutes and businesses that are of the same value and have the same features, and since cons umers also have perfect knowledge on the market, this small change in price will make the consumers just shift to another business as their price would be comparatively lower.In this market, the price is determined by the demand and supply levels. No individual business can influence how the pricing goes no matter how much of market share they own.Trying to undercut the price and go below that of their competitors has no value as they could easily sell at the given market price and make more profits.Since there are so many sellers (competitors) in the market, one individual business making changes to the prices will not affect the market as it will be a very insignificant change overall.It will account for only a very small percentage in the whole market and will not affect the total quantity supplied and price points in the market.This is great for the consumers as they will enjoy nominal value for their purchases of any product.OBJECTIVE, EXTERNALITIES, AND PROFITSIn a perfect mar ket, certain objectives are assumed for both consumers and suppliers due to their being perfect knowledge.This knowledge is supposed to allow both these groups to form rational decisions and so work for their own self-interest separately.Thus, consumers are assumed to be always looking to maximize how much utility they get and suppliers are assumed always to be maximizing profits.The same can be said to a majority of how things are run in the real world, but as of late, there are a lot of businesses which focus on social service and not profit.There are even consumers who don’t buy all their products for their usefulness but also their story and brand.Externalities refer to all the third-party influences that are involved in the transactions.This will include negative externalities (Pollution to the surrounding environment) and positive externalities (Education Received).A perfectly competitive market assumes that these externalities do not exist.These are forces that are not alwa ys within the businesses control and every business will face these externalities as they are naturally occurring in society, which is why it cannot be applied to real-world contexts.Finally, the last assumption that is made for a perfectly competitive market is that the businesses can only make super profits in the short-run. In the long-run, all of their profits will fall to a more normal level.How this works is that when a market becomes perfectly competitive, in the beginning, there will only be a few businesses operating in a particular market.This market will face all the changes that come with being perfectly competitive and so the businesses that already exist will start to make abnormal profits during this period.However, due to there being low barriers to entry, other businesses will see the abnormal profits being made in the market and so will flock there. In the long-term, this will increase the supply in the market which will inevitably lead to a fall in price and thus a fall in profits.A Look at Perfect Competition in the Ecommerce IndustryToday, online shopping is a popular method which customers prefer for a number of reasons.Different ecommerce companies have started offering all kinds of goods and products which can be bought directly from the website.The retail ecommerce sales in 2017 across the world reached $2.3 trillion and are expected to grow to $4.88 trillion in 2021.Many companies operating physical stores have moved to the e-commerce industry to gain a share of the market and increase their profitability.Online shopping is a common behavior in almost all countries in the world due to advance in technology, mobile devices and high-speed internet.Here is a video that shows perfect competition in the online industry. The eBay Company ProfileeBay was established in 1995 as an online platform that connected buyers and sellers across the world. The multinational platform enables sellers to offer their inventory while buyers can find a plac e to purchase them.The company does not own its inventory, and the sellers are responsible for shipping the products. eBay charges a small commission on the sale price of an item from the buyers.eBay own country-specific websites for different countries including USA, UK, Canada, China, Australia, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Singapore, Norway and Vietnam.The company earned net revenue of $9.7 billion in 2017 increasing from $8.99 billion in 2016.Competitive Strategy of eBayeBay employs a cost leadership strategy to gain a competitive advantage in the market.The company relies on cost minimization to remain competitive in the market offering goods at lower prices or high-profit margins.Cost leadership model enables a firm to enjoy a competitive advantage by becoming a low-cost producer in the industry.The firm should be able to explore all avenues of the cost advantage to remain profitable in the market.eBay has brought changes to its fee and charges to enable the sellers to offer goods at lower prices.In the early days of operation, eBay used to charge users an insertion fee based on the item price in an auction. It would also charge a final fee when the item had been sold.However, eBay has removed the insertion fee for the sellers though it continues to charge the final fee.The company has also provided each seller on the platform with 20 free listings which the sellers can use without any charge.They have also adjusted the final fee and reduced it to 10% of the sale price of the item.eBay has also brought affordable packages for the power sellers who can get 150 to 2,500 free listings and charge them a lower final value fee compared to other sellers.eBay also takes help of technology to minimize the price of goods.The technology is used to cut back fixed and variable costs in their global e-commerce operations and increase the efficiency of the selling process.The company does not own any inventory and logistics operations which is another reason it can offer goods at lower prices. eBay also takes help of its marketing mix to develop attractive pricing policies for sellers and buyers who use the online auction and retail platform.The company makes use of strategic objectives, comprehensive growth strategies and management practices that lower the operating cost and the overall cost of various processes.The company also follows the strategic objective of using advanced technology to exploit economies of scale. It also employs tactics to increase the number of users so that it can continue to sell goods at lower prices.A high number of users enable eBay to distribute their fixed costs so that they can earn higher profits by lowering the price of goods.eBay has also used the market adaptation strategy to gain a competitive advantage over other online portals.It started as an auction platform selling products only through bidding. Users who had placed the highest bids would be able to buy the item from the seller.However, graduall y eBay understood the importance of retail sales and pioneered the fixed price strategy with their Buy it now option.Buyers could get past the bidding process and buy items at a fixed price from the sellers.Currently, it offers both fixed price and auction listings to get a significant market share and enjoy a competitive advantage.eBay has used the cost leadership strategy with market adaptation to become one of the top e-commerce platforms in the world.RECOMMENDATIONSeBay faces stiff competition from other e-commerce companies around the world. It has become the second largest marketplace with Amazon leading the ranks.Amazon needs to work on its seller service and customer service which has been facing issues on many grounds.Many times dishonest customers have cheated eBay into giving them refunds by claiming a return. The buyers ordered items and returned fake or damaged items claiming refunds.eBay went ahead and issued the refunds sometimes subtracting the money from seller acco unts. eBay has been losing on sellers who are attracted to other platforms with large customer base such as Amazon.eBay has to work on a more intuitive system to address the problems of the sellers. It needs to bring innovation into its operations to gain the ground it has lost to other e-commerce companies.The company should invest in research and development to deliver innovation with new technologies to disrupt the industry. It should work on technologies so that online transactions are conducted securely.eBay should analyze its value chain and network to reposition itself in the market. The analysis will help the firm to identify the actions that will enhance its strategic capabilities to generate more profit.eBay can also create value by forming an alliance strategy with different partners so that it can come out with advertisements which will bring a competitive advantage.The firm should try to determine what the customers want to buy and how to attract their attention.It is c rucial as there are many e-commerce platforms to opt for.The company also needs to work on its logistics so that it can deliver goods to its customer at different locations.eBay should also look to expand to international markets so that it could raise its revenue and attract more sellers.ADVANTAGES OF PERFECT COMPETITIONBusinesses will operate at their highest efficiency due to the availability of costs of production and how low these prices are. High competitiveness will force all the businesses to work extra hard to match the quality of the products in the market.Consumers will enjoy lower prices as all the businesses will be offering their products at the most nominal rates.A business does not have to spend on extra things like advertising or branding as there is no need to and so can save extraThere is no danger of a monopoly forming as there are no barriers to entry.Economic welfare will prosper due to the low price and high-qualityDISADVANTAGES OF PERFECT COMPETITIONLack of i nnovation when it comes to the production of goods. Since there is no reason to create new products in a perfect market, businesses will not put resources into.This kind of market may create a monopsony for the consumers as they have the highest buying power against the suppliers and so they can demand whatever they want.  There are no economies of scale for businesses. Since there is only so much profit that an individual business can make in this market, they can only remain a certain small size as they won’t have the funds to increase their production capabilities. And so, even in the long run, these businesses will not be able to lower costs or increase profit margins.Now that we understand exactly what perfect competition means, we can see that it is not practical to think of it as a real-world situation.This scenario is shown to give an example as to how a market will act under certain conditions.This data is then matched against studies of the real world and is used to find a way to improve the current market process.

The role of Business Process Management Systems - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 7 Words: 1955 Downloads: 10 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Management Essay Type Analytical essay Did you like this example? à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“For information systems it is increasingly difficult to draw a line around an application system and say that you own and control it. For example, value chains extend beyond enterprises, supplier and customer systems become part of each others information architectureà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  (Hasselbring, 2000, p33) Critically evaluate the role of Business Process Management Systems (BPMS), Enterprise Application Integration (EAI) architectures and current middle ware technologies in resolving issues of system integration within and between organisations. How are these developments likely to change the nature of enterprise systems? Introduction Business Process Management and enterprise computing have undergone a remarkable evolution in the recent past. Emphasis on easy availability of data to customers and efficient management of applications within an organisation has lead to the need of integrating and automating applications within the corporate enviro nment. Business Process Management and Enterprise Application Integration are both recognised as being cost efficient methods of integrating existing applications within an enterprise, and across multiple enterprises and adding new technologies to the mix. (Banerjee et al, 2005) Many academics have discussed the various aspects of business process and enterprise computing and the need for business integration together with the various technologies related to BPMS and EAI, and the comparison with other approaches like B2B and customer integration. Also, organisations today typically manage and maintain a diverse portfolio of Information Systems (IS) applications, and as a result organisations are now realising the pressing need to link à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“islands of applicationsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  that have emerged as a consequence of divisional or functional silos. Consequently, both academics and practitioners are showing increasing interest in the area of Enterprise Application Integra tion, which is referred as the plans, methods, and tools aimed at modernising, consolidating, integration and coordinating the computer applications within an enterprise optimisation (Smith and Fingar, March 2003). Today, most companies recognise the value of systems integration, and use it in some capacity to cut costs. However, increasingly many are also looking to outsourcers to get to the next level of business performance, through deploying business process management systems and enterprise application integration. Analyst firm IDC defines business process management as à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“the business transformation or evolution strategy that employs all the advances that have been made in using IT to enhance business efficiency, integrate processes, and manage and present information for greater performance.à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  (Grigori et al, 2004) However, for companies that struggle with the implementation of à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“all the advances made it using ITà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ , one area to gain lift is in employing outsourcing expertise for greater business process and enterprise application integration. Main Body IS has become the organisational fabric for intra- and inter-organisational collaboration in business. As a result, there is mounting pressure from customers and suppliers for a direct move away from disparate systems operating in parallel towards a more common shared architecture. In part, this has been achieved through the emergence of new technology that is being packaged into a portfolio of technologies known as EAI. Its emergence however, is presenting investment decision-makers charged with the evaluation of IS with an interesting challenge. The integration of IS in-line with the needs of the business is extending their identity and lifecycle, making it difficult to evaluate the full impact of the system as it has no definitive start and/or end. Indeed, the argument presented by several academics is that traditional life cycle models are changing as a result of technologies that support their integration with other systems. (Irani et al, 2003) Traditional approaches to managing business processes have often been shown to be inadequate for large-scale, organisation-wide, dynamic settings. However, since Internet and Intranet technologies have become widespread, an increasing number of business processes exhibit these properties, and therefore a new approach is needed. To this end, Jennings et al (2000) described the motivation, conceptualization, design, and implementation of a novel agent-based business process management system, with a key advantage of said system being that responsibility for enacting various components of the business process is delegated to a number of autonomous problem-solving agents. To enact their role, these agents typically interact and negotiate with other agents in order to coordinate their actions and to buy in the services they require. This approach leads to a system that is signif icantly more agile and robust, and easy to integrate, than its traditional counterparts. Modern BPMSs are software platforms that support the definition, execution, and tracking of business processes. BPMSs have the ability of logging information about the business processes they support, and thus proper analysis of BPMS execution logs can yield important knowledge and help organizations improve the quality of their business processes and services to their business partners, through integration. Indeed, BPMSs provide a set of integrated tools that support business and IT users in managing process execution quality by providing several features, such as analysis, prediction, monitoring, control, and optimisation (Smith and Fingar, 2003). Grigori et al (2004) referred to this set of tools as the Business Process Intelligence (BPI) tool suite, defining further enhancements on the BPI tools suite, including automated exception prevention, and refinement of process data preparation st age, as well as integrating other data mining techniques. These developments are particularly relevant, as every day organisations execute thousands of processes as they transact business, and manage sales, contracts and delivery. Business process effectiveness shapes the company, in terms of its strength, growth and ability to effectively serve customers. When evaluating their own business process effectiveness, companies should consider the following questions: Are our processes customer-focused, do these processes support, enhance or move our business goals forward, is our organisation dependent on ad hoc legacy processes that are often manual, duplicative, biased and lack standardization, and are we losing operational efficiency and margin through poor process execution? The answers to these questions are key to the overriding question of whether a business should invest in business process management capabilities, in order to improve their systems integration. (Smith and Fin gar, June 2003) Many organizations manage and maintain a diverse portfolio of IS)applications, and increasingly the integration of these applications is often necessary to support broader enterprise-wide business solutions such as e-business, automated supply chain management (SCM), customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource planning (ERP). EAI has been found to be the best approach to IS application integration by Lam (2005), who undertook a case study of an integration project at Harmond Bank, where an EAI approach was used to integrate the IS applications in its home loans division. The case-study highlights many of the management and architectural decisions that arc pertinent to IS application integration projects, and lessons learned from the case are discussed, together with the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in Enterprise Application Integration. Lam (2005) thus used interview transcripts to identify groups of CSFs in which the CSFs appeared closely in ter-related, concluding that, as organisations embark on major enterprise-wide business initiatives, they will need to think more strategically about how to integrate their diverse portfolio of IS applications. Enterprise integration is also considered to be of great strategic significance in the support of organisations trying to achieve a competitive advantage. Traditional approaches to integration such as electronic data interchange (EDI) have provided a wide range of benefits but have not managed to fully automate and integrate business processes and applications. In addressing many of the limitations of EDI to piece together disparate systems, ERP solutions introduced an alternative approach to integration. However, although ERP systems overcome significant integration problems, they have failed to adequately support intra and inter-organisational integration. There has been a great demand by organisations to overcome integration problems and become more competitive, and in this respect, EAI has emerged to address intra and inter-organisational integration in a more flexible and maintainable way. (Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 2004) Unfortunately, the literature remains limited regarding this emerging area and there is consequently a need for further research and contribution in identifying influential factors for EAI adoption. The rightful installation of ERP and EAI systems should involve replacing functional systems with a standardized company-wide system, however making an EAI system work is more than an issue of technical expertise or social accommodation. (Chang, 2002) Newman and Westrup (2005) builds this argument using the example of management accountants in Great Britain based on evidence from a survey and several case studies. It begins by briefly considering the role of management accountants as a professional group in Great Britain and the significance of the introduction of EAI systems as a challenge to their expertise. It further discusses how ERP systems are made to work, and introduces the technology power loop and its relevance to systems integration. It illustrates the argument using evidence from a survey and a number of cases in the United Kingdom and, in the final sections, it returns to the technology power loop and suggest some developments to it to aid understanding of how EAI systems work in organizations. Summary / Conclusion My findings tend to support Hasselbringà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s view that the role of information systems in business is fundamentally changing, and ownership of an application is increasingly shared across many areas of an organisation. As a result, it is crucial to integrate these applications as best as possible, in order to secure sustained competitive advantage through supply chain management, customer relationship management and enterprise resource planning (Lam, 2005). Whilst they are not perfect systems, and many organisations are unfamiliar with their f ull range of application and usefulness, my research suggested that BPMS and EAI are two of the most successful and robust methods of integrating disparate systems and resolving any issues arising as a result of said integration. Of course, the approach I have taken may have its drawbacks, as many of the writers on the subject have openly professed a preference for BPMS and EAI, thus there is a very real possibility that their views on the concepts may be biased. Equally, although I was able to find many articles and journals citing successful BPMS and EAI implementations, there was very little writing on the drawbacks of these systems, both potential and realised. As a result, this work cannot be considered to be as complete, and as valid, as a study which incorporated research, ideally primary research, into said drawbacks, and found and discussed case studies where BPMS and EAI had failed to deliver the promised integration performance. References: Banerjee, N. Chordia, A. and Rajib, P. (2005) Seamless Enterprise Computing using Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Journal of Services Research; Vol. 5, Issue 1, p. 171. Chang, J. (2002) Envisioning the Process-centric Enterprise. eAI Journal; August 2002, p. 30. Grigori, D. Casati, F. Castellanos, M. Dayal, U. Sayal, M. and Shan, M-C. (2004) Business Process Intelligence. Computers in Industry; Vol. 53, Issue 3, p. 321. Hasselbring, W. (2000) Information System Integration. Communications of the ACM; Vol. 43, Issue 6. Irani, Z. Themistocleous, M. and Love, P. E. D. (2003) The impact of enterprise application integration on information system lifecycles. Information Management; Vol. 41, Issue 2, p177 Jennings, N. R. Norman, T. J. Faratin, P. OBrien, P. and Odgers, B. (2000) Autonomous Agents for Business Process Management. Applied Artificial Intelligence; Vol. 14, Issue 2, p. 145. Journal of Enterprise Information Management (2004) Justifying the decisions for EAI implementations: a validated proposition of influential factors. Journal of Enterprise Information Management; Vol. 17, Issue 2, p. 85. Lam, W. (2005) Investigating success factors in enterprise application integration: a case-driven analysis. European Journal of Information Systems; Vol. 14, Issue 2, p. 175. Newman, M. and Westrup, C. (2005) Making ERPs work: accountants and the introduction of ERP systems. European Journal of Information Systems; Vol. 14, Issue 3, p. 258. Smith, H. and Fingar, (2003) Business Process Management: The Third Wave Meghan-Kiffer Press. Smith, H. and Fingar, (June 2003) A Chasm to be Crossed. www.intelligententerprise.com, 17th June 2003, p. 30. Smith, H. and Fingar, (March 2003) Dont bridge the Business-IT divide: Obliterate it! eAI Journal; March 2003, p. 36. Spigel, R. (2003) B2Bà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s Tower of Babel. www.manufacturingsystems.com, April 2003. Stevens, C. P. (2003) Enterprise Resource Planning: A Trio of Resources Information Systems Management; Summer 2003, p. 61. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The role of Business Process Management Systems" essay for you Create order

Ancient Egypt The World Civilizations Essay - 1084 Words

Thomas Pennell World Civilizations I Mr. Shows 7 November 2016 Ancient Egypt Multiple factors go into account when considering that Ancient Egypt is one of the best civilizations of all time. First, the location of Egypt allowed it to prosper; second, the culture was one that the world hadn’t seen until then; third, the architecture that took place baffles scientists to this day; and lastly the impact it had on modern culture. Egypt is located in a prime location for civilization to spring up. Egypt possessed many natural protective barriers. The Mediterranean Sea lay to the north and the Red sea lay to the east. Ancient Egyptians depended on deserts in the east, south, and west, as well as mountains on the eastern coast to protect them from invaders. The Nile River flows through it for over a 1,000 miles which creates fertile farmland. Whenever the Nile overflows its banks during flooding season it would leave a black sediment. The Egyptians would capture the flood waters in irrigation basins and grew crops in the black sediment; it act ed as a topsoil. Also, when it flooded the egyptian farmers were idled therefore providing a ready workforce for construction of the temples and tombs that stand still beside the Nile’s eternal waters.The Egyptians used also used the Nile River as means of transportation and trade, as well as irrigation for their crops. Thus, the Nile river made Egypt habitable nurtured its crops, carried its commerce, and shaped its beliefs.Show MoreRelatedAncient Egypt : The World s Great Civilizations967 Words   |  4 Pages23:10, â€Å"Remove not the ancient landmark, which thy fathers have set ... Remove not the old landmark; and enter not into the fields of the fatherless.† 　　　　　Back into the ancient Egypt , in order to divide the land and show who owned which part, those large stones were used as landmarks by most of peoples to divide the land. But regarding to the human nature, some of them were dishonest thieves, if the owner of the house was not present anymore, they would move the ancient landmark set by their ancestorsRead MoreAncient Egypt : The Greatest Ancient Civilizations869 Words   |  4 PagesAncient Egypt was one of the greatest ancient civilizations in human history. Ancient Egypt was the longest lasting civilization in the ancient world and lasted for about 2,500 years. ancient Egypt was able to last so long because of their many great accomplishments. The most important thing that lead to the accomplishments and success of ancient Egypt was The Nile River. 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The cultural, economic, political, and/or intellectual achievements of these civilizations contributed to the advancement of humankind. Civilization is a term that has various meanings. Most popularly and in this context it can be referred to as an advanced state of human society, in HYPERLINK http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/which which  a high level of HYPERLINK http://dictionary.referenceRead MoreEssay about Ancient Egypt and Ancient Greece903 Words   |  4 Pagesâ€Å"Ancient Egypt and Ancient Greece† According to history there existed two of many important ancient civilizations that left a significant mark in the history of human development that even today leaves modern society in awe of its greatness. In spite of being distant civilizations, Ancient Egypt and Ancient Greece share similarities and difference in terms of how they practiced religion,political structure, everyday life style, and how they built the monumental architectures that continued to amazeRead MoreAncient Egypt and Mondern Society981 Words   |  4 Pagesdozens of great civilizations have risen from nothing and fallen back into obscurity. Not all civilizations, however, leave a lasting mark on the world, especially not one so profound that influences the world as it exists today. One such civilization that has had a profound impact on daily modern lives was that of Ancient Egypt. Their systems of religion and technological innovation helped not only to leave a permanent impression on the world, but also se rved to mold both the civilizations that directlyRead MoreThe Geography Of Ancient Egypt1510 Words   |  7 Pages Ancient Egypt was one of the most powerful and innovative civilizations. As one of the six civilizations to arise independently, Egypt eventually became one of the most influential nations that lasted over three thousand years, from 3000 B.C to around 30 B.C Egypt boasted of strong leaders, a rich culture, a hierarchical society, and the source of much of it’s wealth, the Nile. The Nile provided the Egyptians with necessities like food, water, transportation, building supplies, and more. Using theRead MoreAncient Sudan (Nubia)1715 Words   |  7 Pagesand southern Egypt. Their history and traditions can be traced to the dawn of civilization. They settled first along the banks of the Nile from Aswan. Along the Nile, they developed one of the oldest and greatest civilizations in Africa until they lost their last kingdom five centuries ago. The Nubians remaine d as the main rivals to the homeland of Africa’s earliest black culture with a history that can be traced from 3800 B.C. onward through the monuments and artifacts. Ancient Nubia was a landRead MoreTaking a Look at Ancient Egypt1181 Words   |  5 PagesThe first ever civilization in Africa was in Egypt along the river Nile. This civilization later spread to the other parts of Africa. The emergence of civilization in Africa provided a framework for most of developments in African history. There were different setups cultural and political aspects when civilization was emerging. The Egyptian civilization was the earliest and it was one of the catalysts in the development of civilization in other parts of Africa. The civilization began around 3000Read MoreHistorical Characteristics Of Ancient Egypt Essay1299 Words   |  6 PagesCivilizations since the beginning of recorded history, and even before, have developed their worldview and religion based on their location and geographical surroundings. These influences would be evident in some circumstances and in others might to be subtler. A prime example of a people group that was molded by the location of the civilization is Egypt. Egypt is located in Northern Africa and is surrounded by and impacted by the Sahara Desert, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and running through

Hbs Jetblue Airlines Managing Growth Free Essays

Analyzing each of these areas we recommend that Getable Implement (A) a new employee selection strategy, (B) a formalized training program, and (C) a reference management system to continue fostering employee autonomy and motivation. II. Analysis Stable’s rapid growth presents a potentially costly problem. We will write a custom essay sample on Hbs: Jetblue Airlines Managing Growth or any similar topic only for you Order Now In terms of strategy, Getable avoids the common airline problem with unions by investing heavily in (1) selection, (2) culture, and (3) systems, areas in which it can grant employee autonomy and foster motivation. While this strategy works currently, these areas do not have the fundamental Institutions to survive the company’s growth. People: employee selection and hiring: Currently, Getable constructs highly motivated teams using both n in-depth selection process and role customization. Stable’s human resources (HRS) department uses behavioral interviews, where all interviewers reach consensus, to determine applicant cultural fit and value alignment. By closely controlling employee quality and fit, Getable can offer employees significant autonomy and fulfill their higher order â€Å"esteem† needs. In addition, Getable developed customized compensation, benefits, and work structures per role that align with each group’s respective desires. The hiring and compensation structures have two main results: 1 ) Jet Blue can attract top talent that matches the organization and (2) the company reinforces overall fairness by tailoring each role. While currently successful, Stable’s hiring process is a hindrance to its continued growth as it is not scalable. Getable will Increase its workforce 400% in a limited timeshare to meet Its internal growth targets. The current selection process will fall because Getable does not have the HRS resources or time to personally interview all applicants multiple times. If Getable maintains its current hiring practices, it risks losing quality employees and grunting the fairness and autonomy that it currently offers. Culture through values, employees, and approachability: Stable’s value-centric, employee focused, and approachable culture motivates employees, attracts talent, differentiates the firm, and enforces the company’s values. First, the company establishes culture by focusing on values. Stable’s top management locked themselves in a New York hotel and defined the company’s core values that align with Its strategy and culture. These values gulled Stable’s hiring, strategy, dally operations, and employee evaluation. Second, Getable focuses on meeting employee needs. Through customized and 1 OFF clear signals that employees are a priority and treated fairly. Third, the management is approachable to all employees. Stories of David Melanin, CEO, working as flight attendant and responding directly to crew member suggestions, or Dave Barge, COO, staying on the plane with his family helping the cleanup crew were famous among employees. These actions reinforce that coaches and teams work in a fair â€Å"find a team solution† environment instead of â€Å"pointing fingers† culture visible in other airlines. The combination of clear values, employee focus, and management approachability gives Getable a culture that motivates employees through visible fairness and clear expectations. While Stable’s culture has succeeded, it lacks more formal embedding mechanisms to survive substantial growth and prevent cultural dilution. Stable’s current culture practices require a method by which to formally spread and reinforce the norms to all new and existing employees as the company expands. If Getable fails to sustain its culture, it risks compromising employee motivation and, as a result, its mechanisms that prevent unionization. Performance systems: To deliver low-fare airline tickets to customers, Getable uses genealogy to cut operating costs. Stable’s â€Å"paperless environment† not only saves paper and resources, but also is a motivating factor. Each pilot’s laptop computer allows him to eliminate monotonous work required for pre-flight checks and further focus on his Job, helping satisfy his need for interesting work. While technological systems help Getable develop a competitive advantage, their employee performance management systems are limited. Currently, Getable â€Å"coaches† review workers’ performance informally along the company’s five values. Because the company does not have more explicit expectations, the procedures risk Ewing perceived as unfair. As the company grows it must explicitly correlate performance to expectations to continue motivating employees. Ill. Recommendations We recommend a multi-faceted and integrated solution that addresses Stable’s scalability problems regarding their people, culture, and systems. First, we recommend that Getable use metrics and refine its hiring process. Second, we recommend that Getable pursue a formal training program. Third, we recommend that Getable construct a formal performance management system. Institute a performance metrics hiring selection process: We recommend using two online tests hat identify interpretable candidates. The first test will use multiple choice and review an individual’s personality against Stable’s five core values. The second test is role-specific and measures each individual’s work skills. Getable will then interview candidates that perform well on both tests only once. Getable can compare test results with career success and identify desirable characteristics from testing. This process will simultaneously (a) speed hiring practices, (b) significantly reduce costs associated with a talent search, and (c) improve employee fit while meeting workforce deeds. This improved efficiency will allow Getable to continue offering employees significant autonomy as the company grows. A potential hurdle is that individuals may attempt to cheat the tests. We contend this will not be a major problem. These individuals will either not pass the interview round, be terminated quickly, or potentially absorb the Getable culture through the training. Construct a formal management and new employees engage in mandatory â€Å"core training. † First, Getable must implement an all roles new hire orientation that focuses on values and the company goals. This will foster a shared company identity and create formal culture embedding. Top management involvement will reinforce that values and culture are universal from CEO to cleanup crew. Second, Getable must offer role specific training where employees are introduced to their coaches. This training will, along with teaching necessary Job skills, outline each role’s expectations, how it fits at Getable, and how each coach will help their employees develop. To ensure ongoing success, Getable should survey employees before the training about their expectations along with their feedback afterwards. Getable must then improve the program based on the feedback, further fostering a collaborative team environment. The training program ensures that Getable will reinforce company identity and embed its culture as the workforce grows. Implement a formal performance management system: We recommend that Getable adopt a formal performance management system to properly motivate employees. First, this system must formally outline each role’s expectations. This mandates that each role have both specific and accessible expectation by which coaches and peers can evaluate each other. Second, Getable must provide employees tit semi-annual â€Å"360† performance feedback. This feedback will allow both coaches and the employees’ peers to review their performance along the company values and role expectations. Third, employees must give formal feedback to both their coaches and Getable. This feedback fosters a greater company identity and helps coaches understand how to help employees. By implementing a more explicit performance management system, Getable can demonstrate fairness across employees and roles that will continue to motivate workers as the company grows. ‘V. Conclusion Stable’s competitive edge comes from its ability to discourage unionization and, s a result, it can keep costs low. Unions fulfill employee needs and culture when the parent company fails to do so. Currently, Getable uses a combination of successful selection, cultural practices, and systems to motivate employees and meet their needs; however, these will not survive Stable’s growth. To continue motivating employees through autonomy, shared identity, clear expectations, and fair practices, Getable must implement an improved hiring process, a formal training program, and a performance management system. These changes will help Getable retain its competitive edge as it expands. How to cite Hbs: Jetblue Airlines Managing Growth, Papers

First Snow Essay Example

First Snow Essay English Essay First Snow 10-11-2009 First Snow By Davy Rothbart, 2000 The scariest things in the world are the ones we do not understand. Our imagination holds immense power over us, which can turn a serene and peaceful milieu into a frightening and terrifying situation. This is the reason why I, and many other children, was afraid of darkness during childhood. Not being able to see in the dark, allows the mind to wander, and suddenly all the ghost stories or horror movies, that seemed so vague and inconsequential in the bright daylight, becomes appetizers for your mind, to create horrendous and unspeakable images. However, vision is not the only requirement for understanding. Outcasts come in all shapes and sizes, and some are clearly visible. As a matter of fact, they will often stand out, because of their unique characteristics, yet they are still often met with hostility, resentment and distrust. The environment in First Snow is small, monotonous and not suited for growth. This means that does that do not fit in with the surroundings, will naturally become outcasts. Maurice is a character with many features that spawns distinction and diversity. His physical attributes include a different skin color, a feeble and frail conformation and finally he wear glasses. His mental traits includes a low self esteem, â€Å"none of y’all prob’ly give a shit about me, I know that† and his religious orientation â€Å"Take one step towards Allah, and he’ll take two steps towards you†. These qualities are what make him extraordinary, and one of the sources of the hatred he generates in the remaining inmates. The other prisoners are like a hive mind. They look like each other, because none of them possesses anything that makes them distinctive. We will write a custom essay sample on First Snow specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on First Snow specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on First Snow specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer They act the same, because their minds work the same way, â€Å"we all laughed; maybe I laughed the loudest, I don’t know†. The narrator defines himself, as one of the group, but because the group is so plain and assimilated, he doesn’t know who he really is – or if he was the one laughing the most. Emotionally they are also connected, in that they share the sorrow and grief, experienced by realizing how long they have actually been detained, †when we knew winter was on it’s a way, a certain desperation latched onto our hearts† and they share the same satisfaction they get from beating Maurice, â€Å"We danced and sang. We beat Maurice savagely, with pride, with glory†. The sudden attack on Maurice happens quickly without hesitation from any of the prisoners, almost as if the assault was planned – and I believe on some level that it actually was †It seemed as if our whole lives had been lived in preparation for this celebration†. The theory of the hive mind group of convicts applies here as well. Ever since Maurice started showing individuality, he became an enemy of the group and when he speaks of his late brother and reveals emotion, he pushes the group of prisoners of the edge. Similar to the short story The Beach, the victim does nothing to protect himself or resist his attackers – who finds the mauling of another human being, unappealingly easy, â€Å"And that was it. It really was that simple†. The assailants in both texts shows clear signs of psychopathic behavior, and marvels at the bliss that comes with murder, and how easy it actually is to end another person’s life, and at the same time, ending their misery. The text never definitely implies that Maurice is dead, but we can assume that he very likely is, and thus the thought of his deceased brother won’t haunt him anymore. Likewise, Christo is liberated from his pain and wounds, as Richard ends his life. However, the prisoners do not attack Maurice to release him from his troubles. They are jealous of him, because even though he is detained, he is the only one who is really free. He has a future, where the remaining inmates are already serving a life sentence, â€Å"I would be freed in spring, but it would not be long before I was locked up again†. The prisoners are not capable of evading their ties to their environment – similar to Hispanic immigrants in many parts of US. Often they will leave their native country, in search of an opportunity to overcome poverty and moribund human rights, but many circumstances such as being unable to obtain citizenship, difficulty with the language and the general stereotypic portrayal of immigrants weighing them down; they are often trapped in the same place, unable to progress and accomplish their sometimes adolescent goals and naive dreams. To the narrator and the prisoners in First Snow, Maurice is no longer seen as a human and therefore cannot be treated as one, and this string of thoughts allows the group to kick, punch and spit on him without feeling remorse – or perhaps it’s vice versa: Maurice is the only human. This scenario resembles an oil painting by Eric Fischl. The picture, entitled Anger, Fear, Remorse or Incontinence†, depicts a dismayed person standing before a huge statue resembling a godlike entity. The emotions in the title, represents the characteristics of the prisoners, excluding Maurice. Anger and fear drive them to attack Maurice, but afterwards they are struck with remorse, â€Å"I knew also that the only way I could have avoided this future of a lifetime of incarceration was if, immediately after the accident, we had grouped up and gone for help†. Finally there is incontinence – the inability to restraint oneself and the lack of sensible self-control. Wantonness is a prominent theme in First Snow, as the text illustrates a world filled with decadence and lack of ethical and decent choices in a society that unattractively bears a strong resemblance to ours. In a way, we all participated in the murder of Maurice, because everyone fears what they cannot understand, and everyone judges what they misinterpret. The difference between our society and the world in First Snow is only upheld by a fragile barrier between acting violently on our misunderstandings with distrust, and accepting the diversity among cultures and norms with tolerance. The narrator regrets his actions, but not because of Maurice’s death, but because he realizes he have predestined himself to an immobile existence, with no chance of escaping a life confined to imprisonment – whether it will be physically confinement or mentally captivity. Words: 1061

Free Essays on Oranges By Gary Soto

that catch the reader’s attention. This poem is just right. â€Å"Oranges† is about a young boy’s first walk with a girl. This poem shows how the simplest things in life may have the most tremendous impact on a person. This poem opens with a delicate flourish of description and detail and ends the same. Soto not only uses detail to describe the occasion, but also describes the weather. He describes the weather as, â€Å"cold, and weighted down (3).† Describing the weather that way creates powerful imagery. This eludes the reader to sympathize with the boy. It is cold outside but yet he is taking a girl out for a walk. This reminds the reader of the fragile nature of innocence of and youth. What grown man would walk with a woman when it’s cold and windy outside? Yet the young and idealistic boy sets out to try and impress his sweetheart on this seemingly inappropriate day. The sweet sincerity of this moment is not and cannot be lost on the audience. The poem continues with telling the reader that the boy has two oranges and a nickel in his jacket. Looking back, the reader questions the presence of the two oranges. Why on earth would a boy carry around two oranges? The answer to t his is found later on in the poem/story. He picks up the girl at her house, which he also describes as â€Å"the one whose/porch light burned yellow (10-11).† Little details about ... Free Essays on Oranges By Gary Soto Free Essays on Oranges By Gary Soto After reading â€Å"Oranges,† a poem by Gary Soto, the only words that run through my head are â€Å"how cute.† This poem is something a girl would call â€Å"the perfect date.† There are many details throughout this poem, which aid in keeping the reader intrigued. Detail can be a powerful tool for a poet, nonetheless any writer. Too much detail overwhelms the main idea, and too little makes the piece of work dry and bland. One can describe events in a simplistic style, without any figurative language or writing devices, or one can choose to fill their work with fancy words that catch the reader’s attention. This poem is just right. â€Å"Oranges† is about a young boy’s first walk with a girl. This poem shows how the simplest things in life may have the most tremendous impact on a person. This poem opens with a delicate flourish of description and detail and ends the same. Soto not only uses detail to describe the occasion, but also describes the weather. He describes the weather as, â€Å"cold, and weighted down (3).† Describing the weather that way creates powerful imagery. This eludes the reader to sympathize with the boy. It is cold outside but yet he is taking a girl out for a walk. This reminds the reader of the fragile nature of innocence of and youth. What grown man would walk with a woman when it’s cold and windy outside? Yet the young and idealistic boy sets out to try and impress his sweetheart on this seemingly inappropriate day. The sweet sincerity of this moment is not and cannot be lost on the audience. The poem continues with telling the reader that the boy has two oranges and a nickel in his jacket. Looking back, the reader questions the presence of the two oranges. Why on earth would a boy carry around two oranges? The answer to t his is found later on in the poem/story. He picks up the girl at her house, which he also describes as â€Å"the one whose/porch light burned yellow (10-11).† Little details about ...

Sugar Water in the Gas Tank Urban Legend

Sugar Water in the Gas Tank Urban Legend Internet urban legend warns of a criminal ploy to disable womens vehicles by pouring sugar water in their gas tanks. Does this trick really work? Description: Urban legendCirculating since: Oct. 2005 (this version)Status: Dubious (see details below) Example Email contributed Oct. 14, 2005: Subject: Warning....be alert!Thought this might be worth passing on.Subject: FW: Warning....be alert! Target in Olathe.I just wanted to let you all know of something that happened to me today in the Target parking lot. be aware of this and let everyone you know aware so this does not happen to anyone else. I was at Target today to return something which only took a couple of minutes. when I pulled into the parking lot a man in a car pulled in a couple spaces down from me. he started to go into the store about the same time as I did, then turned back around and went back to his car. I went into Target returned my items and walked back out to get into my car. when I walked out, he was walking away from my car carrying a small gas can. I noticed there was fluid on the side of my car and a puddle beside it. I got into my car not sure of what happened, wrote down his license plate # and left. He followed me out of the parking lot and onto 169. I was only able to drive about a half a mile and my car started acting funny. It died on me as I was driving and I was able to pull into an area business along the highway. I just sat in my car and called the police. The man drove by three times as I waited. The police who came took a report and said that he had poured sugar water into my gas tank which is what made my car stall. It was a great way to get a woman by herself to be stranded on the streets. Luckily for me I was able to stop where there were people around. The police know where the car came from and are working on this now. Not sure what will happen but my car is now in the shop not running, but it could have been much worse for me. Just be aware that this is happening and always be aware of your surroundings. It certainly scared me and I am grateful that nothing else happened. Analysis While its not 100 percent beyond the realm of possibility, the incident described above seems unlikely to have happened given the haphazard nature of the ploy involved. Putting sugar or water in the gas tank of a vehicle can indeed cause the engine to stall- sugar, because the granules wont dissolve in gasoline and may clog the fuel filter; water, because it interrupts combustion- but neither method will produce a predictably-timed engine failure. Depending on the quantity of the foreign substance introduced, it might take minutes, hours, or even days for the stall to occur, if it occurs at all. The same would hold true if the foreign substance was a sugar-water mixture. Dissolved in water, the sugars effect would be negligible, so its essentially no different than pouring plain H2O in the gas tank. The point is, the evildoer who plans to use this method to waylay his victim in a conveniently secluded spot is leaving an awful lot to chance, and, more likely than not, will fail. Which makes it unlikely that such a ploy is often used. From Kansas to Texas to North Carolina It may seem strange, then, to find email reports of incidents matching this exact description happening in Target store parking lots everywhere from Kansas to Texas to North Carolina. But its not so strange when you consider that this forwarded message has been circulating non-stop since 2005, accruing helpful bits of misinformation along the way. In this respect, the text fulfills the classic definition of what folklorists call a migratory legend, with individuals revising specific details to localize the tale before passing it along. At the same time, the story has inspired skeptical news coverage in some cities based on disavowals by local police. â€Å"It’s not happening in Hickory, police captain Clyde Deal told the Hickory, NC Daily Record after the email surfaced there in March 2007. â€Å"As far as we can tell, it’s not happening anywhere in western North Carolina.† Assistant police chief Mike Samp of Mishawaka, Indiana, gave a similar response to the South Bend Tribune: We researched it and could find no police report, which quite naturally, made us suspicious. Police in Wheeling, Ohio simply dismissed it as a hoax. Another Close Call Sifting through email archives, we discovered a variant of this story dating from November 2002 in which a perpetrator who disables a womans car with sugar water is captured by police and found to have an array of kidnapping implements hidden in his van. This alternate version bears a general similarity to the one weve already seen, but is also reminiscent of The Knife in the Briefcase, an urban legend circulating online since the late 90s in which a woman survives a close call in a shopping mall parking lot with a good Samaritan who turns out to be packing a knife, duct tape, and chloroform. Email contributed Nov. 11, 2002: Fw: THIS ALERT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE!!!!!!!!!!I wanted to share a TRUE story with all of you. I heard about this last week and found out, that it is indeed TRUE. This happened to Cathy Conaways sister, who lives in North Guyton. She went to the Wal-Mart in Pooler about 11:00 one night about 1-2 weeks ago. (Im sure this is familiar for a lot of us) When she parked her car, there was a van parked right next to her. She heard noise coming from inside but didnt see anyone in it. (didnt think much about it then)About 1 a.m. she was leaving and noticed that the van was now parked in front of her vehicle. Getting a little nervous ( that gut feeling) she went back inside and asked if a security guard could walk her out. As they were loading her car, the van pulled out and left. As she got on the road, she noticed the same van behind her. She went a little ways (between Pooler and Faulkville) and her car began to spit and sputter. By this time she was really scared and called 911 from her cell phone. As she pulled over, the police was right there, and the van went on by.While talking to the police the van had turned around and went back by. She pointed it out and the police went after it. The man inside was arrested and taken to jail, but was released on a $700 bond. In his van they found: HER gas cap, a gun, hunting knife, duct tape, rope, a gallon jug of sugar water, and two pairs of womens underwear!!!!!!!!!! After getting her vehicle checked out for the problem, it was determined that sugar and water had been poured into her gas tank.They have found the man and he is back in jail. He is from Walterboro, S.C. I thought I would share this with you since Christmas shopping nights are just ahead. PLEASE be aware of your surroundings where ever you go. As for me, Im getting a LOCKING gas cap. They sell them (where else but) Wal-Mart. Anyway, the bottom line is: BE CAREFUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Remember the lady that went missing from Rincon several months ago? They found her car , I think in the Freds parking lot, but still have not found her. Makes you wonder, doesnt it Cautionary tales are meant to instruct, and in a vague sense these examples may be edifying even though theyre false, in that they remind potential crime victims to take note of their surroundings and be wary of the advances of strangers when alone. But they also mislead, diverting attention to fictional scenarios and creating a climate of fear. Remember the fable of the boy who cried wolf? People will only be deceived so many times before they just stop listening, and that defeats the purpose. Sources I Put Sugar in My Husbands Gas Tank... Car TalkDont Panic, Widespread Email Warning Women Just a Prank. Hickory Record (North Carolina).Another Urban Legend Gets Debunked. South Bend Tribune, 10 March 2007.Hoax Email Aimed at Women. WTOV-TV News, 28 February 2007.What If I Put Sugar in Someones Gas Tank? How Stuff Works.

Social Media Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 2

Social Media - Assignment Example k is convenient and easy to get started with on your own procedures since it involves active participation in your Facebook page and promoting marketing developments in the page that is visible to other people who use Facebook website. Today, the social network has over 400 million members. Therefore, in social media marketing, Facebook becomes incredibly beneficial in promoting products across the globe through the use of social media (Evans, 2010.p 15). The procedures of using Facebook include registering a business page and keeping personal photos and information in isolation. Additionally, filling out the aspects of business profile, especially email and website address (Tuten & Solomon, 2013). This makes it simpler for other people and customers to find a company off of Facebook and still transact business activities. Besides, in the Facebook page, one can advertise specials and offer coupon codes to fans. Facebook advertising is fairly priced and gives an opportunity to market audiences by age, location and gender. The keywords in their profiles and other items can be found in the Facebook page to market more audiences and products. In this paper, Facebook has been discussed as the major social media outlet with components of a legally astute Facebook marketing manager, methods of alternative dispute resolution, consumer transactions on Facebook, branches of government, agency relationship and finally, media providers and business that utilize social network site for advertising (Funk, 2013.p 19) Four components exists as a legally astute manager (1) setting value laden attitudes based on the importance of law to firm success (2) proactive tactic to ruling (3) ability to exercise informed judgment when managing legal aspects of business and finally (4) the context of specific knowledge of law and appropriate use of legal tools (The Role Of the Media, 2004). A good manager needs to set overloaded attitudes towards obedience of laws that govern the firm for

Individual Reports on Group Presentations Essay

Individual Reports on Group Presentations - Essay Example Apart from this they presented us with the pros and cons of genetic programming. Discussion of the Topic The idea of code evolving the way human genes evolve is really very fascinating and novel but the progress made so far and the results shown by genetic programming are very narrow and limiting (William B. Langdon, 2002).the group showcased SIRI as a masterpiece of genetic programming but I consider it to be a simple algorithm which cannot be compared to evolve like the human genes. Genetic programming as of now can be considered to be only a slight variation on solution searching algorithm (Larson, 2009).The focus of Genetic programming in SIRI or even in robotics has been to converge to a solution. The application of genetic programming only to converge to a solution as quickly as possible is not the way human genes function. So either the name genetic programming needs to be changed or tweaked to make drastic progress in the field. The progress till now has been a failure. (Nave t, 2006)The group has mentioned in one of the cons of genetic programming that it uses a lot of computer power. This according to me is no more a disadvantage. The recent progress in computing means that we have more computer cycles than we have use for. So genetic programming is no more unviable due to the computing power it uses. However it will surely become unviable if it does not produces better results. The future research in robotics called as evolutionary robotics may be the way forward to further develop genetic programming. This is something that the group failed to look into in their presentation. Genetic programming where programs generate future programs is the bedrock of artificial intelligence. In order to make robots which can follow our orders or even phones which are really smart, genetic programming needs to evolve a lot. It can make human work easier and help us to reach new levels in industrialisation and development. However genetic programming also threatens t o make a lot of human resource obsolete and redundant. If programmes can regenerate, there will be little use of software engineers and programmers. However it is still a long way to go before all that happens. In its present form genetic programming have been a failure and not the promising revolution which the group wants us to believe it is. Marking and Justification Marks: Content Topic Marks Justification Research 15/20 The topic was well researched and presented in a way that a novice can understand. Relevance 7/10 Stuck to the brief but the only drawback was to discuss the failure of genetic programming till now. Topicality 6/10 Robotics and GP not linked Conclusions 8/20 No justification for conclusions given by the group. Marks: Presentation Topic Marks Justification Clarity 8/10 Speakers were loud and easily audible. Structure 5/10 When the speaker changed, there was a break in the flow of thoughts which indicated lack of practice. Materials 9/10 The slides and visual aids were of extremely good quality. Bonus Marks 2/10 Good appearance. Group H Description of the Topic The group focuses on cyber terrorism. The group started by defining cyber terrorism. Although there is no one fixed definition of cyber terrorism, the group chose to give two definitions which are given by United States armed forces and the Collins dictionary. They also tried to provide their own

Self-Analysis Essay -- Essays Papers

Self-Analysis Before taking this course my writing styles and habits were very different. I was the typical procrastinator because I would wait until the night before a paper was due to start it. This did not allow me enough time to properly proofread everything, which resulted in getting points deducted for simple grammatical errors that could have been avoided if I would have had the time to proofread. My writing styles have many strengths and weaknesses and I have been able to improve my writing because of them. I have learned from my strengths and weaknesses how to become a better writer. In my writing, I have many strengths, some that which I have developed through this course and some that I already had. Before this class, I was able to pick out good content for my papers and concentrate on including the most important material. Also before this course I was able to develop paragraphs well. I was able to have good structure and format within my paragraphs. I was also able to think of the best order for them to go in so that the paper would flow well. However aft...

Traffic Movement in Lufthansa Airlines: a Supply Chain Perspective

Journal of Services Research Volume 10 Number 2 October 2010 – March 2011 FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. Debadyuti Das Associate Professor, Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. The Journal of IIMT FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Debadyuti DasThe present paper attempts to find out the forecasted passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines on quarterly basis at a global level by employing four forecasting methods namely moving average, exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model with the help of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. The study has also found out the forecasting errors of all the four methods through Absolute error (AE), Mean squared error (MSE), Mean absolute deviation (MAD ) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).The study also carried out the comparative analyses of the above forecasting methods in the light of the available data. The findings reveal that the forecasting errors are the least in case of Winter's model. Further the forecasted values suggested by Winter's model more closely resemble the observed data of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. This provides a valuable insight to the top management as regards formulation of suitable strategies for addressing the varying demand of passenger traffic movement.Few strategies in respect of both demand side and supply side options have been suggested with a view to improving the overall supply chain profit of Lufthansa Airlines. INTRODUCTION irlines industry across the globe is currently undergoing recession due to severe financial crisis faced by the major economies of the world. As per the estimates of International Air Transport Association (IATA), globally air travel has declin ed by 2. 9% and 1. 3% during September and October, 2008 respectively compared to the same months in the previous year.Segment-wise passenger traffic estimates provided by IATA further reveal that the Asia Pacific Carriers and North American Carriers registered a decline in passenger traffic flow by 6. 1% and 0. 9% respectively in October, 2008 compared to the same month in the previous year. African Carriers recorded the largest decline in traffic flow by 12. 9% in October, 2008 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011)  ©2010 by Institute for International Management and Technology. All Rights Reserved. A 4 Forecasting the Passenger compared to the same month in the previous year. The remaining segments namely European, Latin American and Middle Eastern Airlines experienced a moderate growth in its traffic flow to the tune of 1. 8%, 4. 5% and 3. 5% respectively in October, 2008 (IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, 2008b). Howe ver, the financial crisis sweeping across the globe does not appear to have much negative impact on Lufthansa Airlines in respect of its passenger traffic flow till September, 2008 as revealed from the data provided in table 2a.A cursory observation into the table 2 further demonstrates that the passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines has been following a very systematic pattern since October, 2006 to September, 2008. There has been hardly any departure from the pattern observed in passenger traffic movement during the above period. Despite difficult market conditions, Lufthansa passenger Airlines was able to achieve a sales growth of 4. 2% and 0. 7% in September and October, 2008 respectively.It registered an increase in its passenger traffic flow in three major markets namely America (North/South), Asia/ Pacific, and Middle East & Africa both during September and October, 2008. American segment recorded a growth rate of 6. 9% and 1% during September and October, 2008 respecti vely. Asia/Pacific region exhibited an increasing trend of 8. 8% and 6% while Middle East and African region recorded an increasing trend of 2. 5% and 11% during September and October, 2008 respectively. Only European market experienced a declining trend to the tune of 0. 4% and 3% during the above periods (Lufthansa Investor Info, page 1, 2008).The above phenomenon has motivated us to apply the most popular and well-established forecasting methods with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines for future periods. The main objective of the paper is to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines at a global level with the help of moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), Holt’s model and Winter’s model by making use of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa Airlines.In addition, the paper has also attempted to find out the most suitable forecasting model for the above problem by comparing the forecasting errors of the above four forecasting models obtained through absolute error (AE), mean squared error (MSE), mean Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 65 Singh, Das absolute deviations (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The following section provides a brief review of literature. Section 3 provides a brief overview of Lufthansa Airlines along with the recent data on passenger traffic movement.It contains a thorough analysis of forecasted passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods and the comparative analysis of the same. Section 4 suggests few strategies for absorbing the varying nature of demand. The paper is concluded with a brief summary, potential contribution and limitations of the same. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Forecasting literature is replete with a number of studies ranging from simple time-series forecasting models to economet ric models as also the forecasting models employing artificial intelligence techniques etc.Researchers have employed the forecasting models with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of traffic for a particular period. However, the study findings reveal that there does not exist a single model which consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Quantitative forecasting methods can be categorized under three broad heads: (1) time-series modeling, (2) econometric models and (3) other quantitative models (Song and Li, 2008). Under time-series models, several techniques are available, e. g.Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model, Winter’s Model, ARIMA etc. (Makridakis et al, 2003). In time-series model, particular attention is paid to exploring the historic trends and patterns of the time-series involved and to predict the future of this series based on trends and patterns identified in the model. Since time-series models require only historica l observations of a variable, it is less costly in data collection and model estimation. However, these models cannot account for the changes in demand that might occur in different periods.The major advantages of econometric models over time-series models lie in their ability to analyze the causal relationships between the demand and its influencing factors (Song and Li, 2008; Makridakis et al, 2003). It is possible for econometric models to take into consideration several variables together, for example, air fare charged by an airline, competitive fare offered by other airlines, promotional campaign, perceived security threat, price and income elasticity of Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 6 Forecasting the Passenger demand etc. However, it is difficult and costly to collect data on each individual variable, incorporate the same into the model and explain its contribution towards the dependent variable. A number of new quantitati ve forecasting methods, predominantly Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, have emerged in forecasting literature. The main advantage of AI techniques is that it does not require any preliminary or additional information about data such as distribution and probability (Song and Li, 2008).Table 1 provides a brief overview of some related works pertaining to forecasting and traffic movement in airlines. Table 1: Brief Overview of Few Works Relating to Traffic Movement in Airlines Author Choo and Mokhtarian (2007) Contribution Developed a conceptual model in a comprehensive framework, considering causal relationships among travel, telecommunications, land use, economic activity and socio-demographics and explored the aggregate relationships between telecommunications and travel using structural equation modeling of national time-series data spanning 1950-2000 in the US.Proposed an artificial neural network (ANN) structure for seasonal time-series forecasting. Results found by the p roposed ANN model were compared with the traditional statistical models which reveal that the prediction error of the proposed model is lower than the traditional models. The proposed model is especially suitable when the seasonality in time-series is very strong. Developed a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport.The existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world is considered. In addition, the growth rates by country or region is also taken into account. The future origin and destination demand in then converted into route traffic subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. Applied Static-regression trend-fitting model for the purpose of forecasting future tourism demand in North Cyprus.Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to China and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to Australia for the purpose of forecasting business tourism and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Employed autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for the purpose of forecasting tourism demand at Greece.Hamzacebi (2008) Dennis (2002) Bicak, Altinay and Jenkins (2005) Kulendran and Shan (2002) Kulendran and Witt (2003) Dritsakis and Athanasiadia (2000) THE CASE OF LUFTHANSA AIRLINES Deutsche Lufthansa (Lufthansa), the third largest airlines of Europe, is the world’s fifth largest airline in terms of overall passengers carried and operating services to 209 destinations in 81 countries. It has the 6th largest passenger airline fleet in the world.Lufthansa is headquartered in Cologne, Germany with its main base and primary traffic hub at Frankfurt International Airport in Frankfurt and a second hub at Munich International Airport. Lufthansa has built a premium b rand synonymous with quality, innovation, reliability, competence and safety despite operating in a tough market where cost cutting is commonplace. Lufthansa founded the world’s first multilateral airline grouping, ‘Star Alliance’ along with Air Canada, SAS, Thai Airways and United Airlines.At the same time, the airline invested in the most advanced passenger aircrafts and in 1999 it embarked on a vast IT programme that would transform the revenue and profit of its passenger Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 67 Singh, Das airline business (Lufthansa, Wikipedia, 2008). However, estimating the demand of passenger traffic for a particular period has always been the principal determinant in generating revenue for the airline. Table 2a shows the passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa (excluding the number in Swiss Airlines) Airlines for the period during October, 2006 to September, 2008.Table 2 (a): Monthly Traffic F low for the Last Two Years Traffic Year – Month Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Passenger traffic (in thousands) 4936 4327 3969 3851 3820 4668 4635 4991 5003 5241 5067 5193 5241 4604 4132 4141 4223 4625 5031 5152 5203 5171 4883 5164 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000Table 2 (b): Quarterly Data of Passenger Quarters Passenger traffic Source of data: Key data, Lufthansa Investor Relations, 2008; Lufthansa Investor Info, page 2, 2008 The monthly passenger traffic shown in table 2 (a) has been utilized to calculate the quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 68 Forecasting the Passenger (from Quarter 4, 2006 to Quarter 3, 2008) w hich has been shown in table 2 (b).With the help of these quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years, we have attempted to find out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods namely 4-period Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model and Winter’s Model. Table 3 presents the forecasted values through 4-quarter moving average while table 4 shows the forecasted data through simple exponential smoothing. Table 5 and 6 shows the forecasting through Holt’s model along with forecasting errors.Table 7 through 10 reveals, in detail, the forecasted demand of the passenger traffic flow by employing Winter’s Model. Table 10 also includes the forecasting errors. The exercise reveals that the forecasting errors are the lowest in case of Winter’s Model which are indicated by the values of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Moreover, the quarterly forecasted values suggested by Winter’s Mode l closely follow historical pattern which is clearly depicted in figure 1. FORECASTING THROUGH 4-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE (MA) Moving Average method is generally employed in a situation in which only level, i. e. eseasonalized demand is present and neither trend nor seasonality is observed. We took the average traffic flow of four quarters starting from the 4th quarter of 2006 and continued the exercise till the 3 rd quarter of 2008 for the purpose of finding out the forecasted passenger traffic movement in the immediate following quarter. Table 3 presents the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement through four-quarter MA method. In the same table, the values of forecasting errors measured in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE are also shown. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 9 Singh, Das Table 3: Forecasting through 4-Period Moving Average & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) Forecast (F) Four Period Moving Average Method Absolute Error Mean Squared Error Error (E) (AE) (MSE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 2006 Q- 4 13232000 2007 Q- 1 12339000 2007 Q- 2 14629000 2007 Q- 3 15501000 13925250 2007 Q- 4 13977000 14111500 13925250 2008 Q- 1 12989000 14274000 14111500 2008 Q- 2 15386000 14463250 14274000 2008 Q- 3 15218000 14392500 14463250 -51750 1122500 -1112000 -754750 51750 1122500 1112000 754750 2678062500 6. 31342E+11 8. 3076E+11 7. 67219E+11 51750 587125 762083. 3333 760250 % Error MAPE Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14392500 0. 37025113 0. 37025113 8. 64192779 4. 50608946 7. 22734954 5. 41317615 4. 95958733 5. 29977895 Formula used Systematic demand = Level Lt= (Dt + Dt-1+†¦.. Dt-n+1)/N Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (ES) Like moving average method, exponential smoothing is also used in a situation, in which only level is observed. However, ES attempts to smoothen the fluctuations observed in demand data o f different periods through smoothing constant (alpha).We first calculated the level of passenger traffic flow of the initial period by taking the average of actual traffic flow for the last eight quarters, which has been considered as the forecasted value of passenger traffic flow for quarter 1. Table 4 demonstrates the forecasted values through simple ES. The same table also contains the values of forecasting errors expressed in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 70 Forecasting the Passenger Table 4: Forecasting through Simple Exponential Smoothing & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 % Error 7. 0479897 13. 9977916 5. 02789835 9. 89599461 1. 02611209 8. 60018261 9. 04478131 7. 12621269 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 MAPE 7. 00479897 10. 5012953 8. 67682963 8. 98162087 7. 39051912 7. 5921297 7. 79965136 7. 71547153 Formula used Systematic de mand = Level Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt Lt+1=alpha(Dt+1)+(1-alpha)Lt alpha=0. 1 Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14241980 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 8 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 14241979. 66 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 88 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 926875 1727187. 5 -735531. 25 -1533978. 1 143419. 688 1117077. 72 -1391630. 1 -1084467 926875 1727187. 5 735531. 25 1533978. 125 143419. 6875 1117077. 719 1391630. 053 1084467. 048 8. 59097E+11 1. 92114E+12 1. 46109E+12 1. 68409E+12 1. 35139E+12 1. 33413E+12 1. 42021E+12 1. 38969E+12 926875 1327031. 25 1129864. 583 1230892. 969 1013398. 313 1030678. 214 1082242. 762 1082520. 98 Forecast (F) Simple Exponential Smoothing Method Absolute Error Error (E) (AE) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Average Deviation (MAD) (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH HOLT'S MODEL We carried out a regression analysis wherein Time period was considered on X-axis and passenger traffic data was taken on Y-axis in order to find out the initial level and trend. Holt's model, also known as trend-corrected exponential smoothing, is applicable in a situation, in which level and trend are observed in the demand data. However, seasonality is not considered in Holt's model.We used the â€Å"Linest Function†of Microsoft Excel to calculate the values of L0 and T0, which is shown in table 5. Table 5: Regression to Find Initial Level and Trend for Holt's Model x (Period) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 270154. 7619 T0 y (Traffic) 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 12943178. 57 L0 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 71 Singh, Das Once the initial values of level of trend are found, the subsequent values of the level and trend of each period are iteratively calculated following Holt's model which is shown in table 6.This finally helps in finding out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement as per Holt's model, which is shown in table 6. Table 6 also reveals the forecasting errors. Table 6: Forecasting through Holt's Model Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Trend(T) 270528. 095 Level (L) 13215200 Forecast (F) 13213333. 33 13485728. 1 13618648. 82 13987484. 49 14436906. 91 14679788. 95 14765767 15095251. 1 Error (E) -18666. 67 1146728. 1 -1010351 -1513516 459906. 91 1690788. 9 -620233 -122748. 1 Absolute Error (AE) 18666. 66667 1146728. 095 1010351. 181 1513515. 506 459906. 9118 1690788. 949 620232. 9957 122748. 0864 T8=269916. 6 15377443 15647360 15917276 16187193 Formula used Systematic demand = Ft+1=Lt+T t alpha =0. 1 Beta = 0. 2 Lt+1 = alpha(D t+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+T t) T t+1= beta(Lt+1-Lt)+(1-beta)Tt Lev el + Trend Ft+n =Lt+nT t Mean Squared Error (MSE) 348444444. 4 6. 57667E+11 7. 78714E+11 1. 15672E+12 9. 67677E+11 1. 28286E+12 1. 15455E+12 1. 01211E+12 270154. 762 12943178. 7 247593. 533 13371055. 29 267800. 557 13719683. 94 298070. 867 14138836. 04 288872. 729 14390916. 22 255056. 95 267461. 61 14510710. 05 14827790. 3 269916. 571 15107526. 72 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 18666. 66667 582697. 381 725248. 6476 922315. 3622 829833. 6721 973326. 2183 922884. 3294 822867. 299 % Error 0. 141072148 9. 293525369 6. 906495187 9. 763986233 3. 290455117 13. 0170833 4. 031151668 0. 806598018 MAPE 0. 141072148 4. 717298758 5. 447030901 6. 526269734 5. 879106811 7. 068769558 6. 634824146 5. 90629588 L8=15107527 F9 F10 F11 F12 Forecasted Traffic Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH WINTER'S MODEL Winter’s model, also known as trend and seasonality-corrected ES, is generally employed in a situation in which all characteristic features of demand data, i. e. level (Lt), trend (Tt) and seasonality (St) are observed. The actual demand (Dt), being seasonal in nature, is transformed into deseasonalized demand (Ddt ). The deseasonalized demand data and corresponding time periods are employed to run regression analysis in order to calculate the initial level (L0) and trend (T0) which is shown in table 7.The values of L0 and T0 are then used to find out the estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) of passenger traffic of different time periods. Seasonal factors for each period are calculated using the formula Dt /(Dt) as shown in table 8. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 72 Forecasting the Passenger Table 7: Regression Analysis for Finding out the Deseasonalized Demand X (Period) 3 4 5 6 140439. 5 Y (Deseasonalized demand)(Ddt) 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13619931 T0 L0 Table 8: Calculation of Seasonal Factors for Winter's ModelPeriod(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13760370. 5 13900810 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 5 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 0. 961602015 0. 887646116 1. 041858846 1. 093029187 0. 97590243 0. 898111594 1. 053618578 1. 032187385 Quarters Actual demand (Dt ) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Dt =L+Tt Seasonal factors (Dt / D t) Subsequently seasonality (St) is recalculated for each period as per Winter's model which is shown in table 9.Level and trend of each period are also iteratively calculated following Winter's model which have been mentioned in detail in table 9. Finally table 10 demonstrates the forecasted data of passenger traffic flow along with forecasting errors. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 73 Singh, Das Table 9: Determination of Level, Trend and Seasonal Factors (Winter's Model) Period(t) Quarters Actual Traffic (Dt) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) 13760370. 5 13900810 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 Seasonality St Level(L) Trend(T) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 0. 968752222 0. 892878855 1. 047738712 1. 062608286 0. 968072702 0. 892415518 1. 047252432 1. 065603208 0. 968770988 0. 892874843 1. 047722994 1. 062255808 13619931 13755292. 34 13891430. 02 14027555. 72 14187811. 57 14334567. 79 14480348. 88 14626058. 49 14744278 140439. 5 139931. 6844 139552. 284 139209. 6254 141314. 2474 141858. 4444 142250. 709 142596. 999 140158. 8902 Table 10: Forecasting through Winter's Model and the Forecasting Errors Forecast(F) 13330389. 5 12406751. 72 14700803. 33 15053722. 24 13871635. 54 12918987. 41 15313552. 98 15737526. 24 Error(E) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 -447 277. 7569 -105364. 4571 -70012. 58968 -72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Absolute Error(AE) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 447277. 7569 105364. 4571 70012. 58968 72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Mean Squared Error (MSE) 9680494002 7135394612 6475502625 54870974917 46117113697 39247888533 34390843099 63830427174 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 98389. 0148 83070. 60949 79314. 85071 171305. 5772 158117. 3532 143433. 226 133292. 3392 181571. 577 % Error 0. 743572411 0. 549085967 0. 490828718 2. 885476788 0. 753841719 0. 539014471 0. 470863243 3. 413893032 MAPE 0. 743572411 0. 646329189 0. 594495699 1. 167240971 1. 084561121 0. 993636679 0. 91895476 1. 230822044 L8=14407445 T8=3284577 Formula used Systematic component of demand =(level+demand)*seasonal factor Ft+1 = (Lt+T t)St+1 Ft+i=(Lt+iTt)St+i L t+1 = alpha (Dt+1/St+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+Tt) T t+1= Beta (Lt+1 – Lt) + (1- Beta)T t St+p+1= gamma (Dt+1/Lt+1) + (1-gamma)St+1 Alpha = 0. 5 beta=0. 1 gamma=0. 1 Forecasted traffic F9 F10 F11 F12 14419 610. 62 13415083. 6 15888462. 17 16257733. 32 (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) COMPARISON AMONG FOUR FORECASTING METHODS The following figure gives an interesting revelation regarding the behaviour of forecasted data by comparing the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic obtained through all four methods. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 74 Forecasting the Passenger Historical traffic Forecasted traffic Moving Average Simple exponential smoothing Holt’s Model Winter’s ModelFigure 1: Comparison among four forecasting methods The portion of the graph before the vertical line indicates historical data while the portion of the graph after the line is the forecasted data. The forecasted data of the model graph (Winter's Model) replicates the historical data. It indicates a positive trend as well as seasonality. FORMULATION OF SUITABLE STRATEGIES FOR ABSORBING VARYING DEMAND Keeping in view the overall objective of impr oving the supply chain profit, the management should explore all possible alternatives of both demand side as well as supply side options.It is observed that demand for passenger traffic movement is not uniform throughout the year. In order to level the demand, the management of the airlines can undertake the following well-established measures: †¢ †¢ Formulate suitable marketing strategies to create new demand in the lean period. During peak periods, when the demand will exceed capacity, the management needs to offer seats to the customers who will pay the highest fares. Of course, other customers need to be motivated and informed that they would probably be charged less fare, if they undertake their trip at some other period.Shift some proportion of demand from peak period to lean period by offering the customers a reasonable rate of discount in the lean period. Of course, the cost/benefit analysis of this exercise has to be thoroughly examined beforehand. †¢ Journa l of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 75 Singh, Das †¢ Considering the lean periods of the airline in different routes and destinations, the top management needs to explore new destinations which may appear to be very attractive from the perspective of the customers.Accordingly the management can withdraw some of the flights from the existing underloaded routes and ply the same in the new routes. Alternatively the management needs to examine the passenger traffic data of different routes on monthly/quarterly basis. If it is found that during the same period, some destinations experience very high demand while others have low demand, the management may withdraw some of the flights from underutilized routes and introduce the same in the heavily loaded routes. †¢In all cases, the detailed cost/benefit analysis of different alternatives is to be thoroughly examined. Then a particular course of a strategy or a combination of strategies m ay be adopted by the management. CONCLUSION The present study has attempted to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow of Lufthansa Airlines by employing the four forecasting methods, viz. moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model. The forecasted data suggested by Winter's model reflect the historical pattern in a better manner than three other forecasting methods.This gives a valuable insight to the managers regarding formulation of appropriate strategies in order to absorb varying nature of demand in different quarters. The same kind of study can be replicated in other airlines with suitable modifications. Of course, the present work have not taken into consideration important factors, for example, the prevailing slowdown in the global economy, perceived security threat in the wake of terrorist strikes at different parts of the globe etc.Moreover, the study has considered the total passenger traffic movement of Lufthan sa as a whole and has not paid attention to an individual market segment. This may not provide a clear picture to the management regarding increase or decrease in traffic flow in a particular segment. Future study should take care of this aspect. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 76 Forecasting the Passenger The implications of varying demand on supply side need to be thoroughly examined and accordingly suitable strategies should be adopted for improving the profit across the whole supply chain.REFERENCES Bicak, H. A. , Altinay, M. & Jenkins, H. (2005) ‘Forecasting tourism demand of North Cyprus', Journal of Hospitality and Leisure Marketing, Vol. 12, pp. 87-99. Chopra, S and Meindl, P (2007) Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning & Operation, 3rd edition, Pearson Education, New Delhi. Choo S. and Mokhtarian, P. L. (2007) ‘Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US', Transportation Research Part A, 41 pp. 4 -18. Dennis, N. P. S. 2002) ‘Long-term forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport', Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 8, pp. 313-324. Dritsakis, N. and Athanasiadis, S. (2000) ‘An econometric model of tourist demand: The case of Greece', Journal of Hospitality and Leisure Marketing, Vol. 7, pp. 39-49. Hamzacebi, C. (2008) ‘Improving artificial neural networks' performance in seasonal time series forecasting', Information Sciences, Vol. 178, pp. 4550-4559. IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, Facts & Figures – 2008 Traffic Results, Montreal, Quebec, viewed 30 November,